Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Sovereign risk,
on the record.
Structural risk scores for 22 countries, recomputed daily from public data — the Federal Reserve, SEC filings, European grid operators — by a method you can run yourself and get the same answer.
Every call is hashed and dated before the outcome is known. The ones it gets wrong stay published.
Today’s reading
All 22countries & detail| COUNTRY | REGION | SIGMA | REGIME | COLLAPSE | HORIZON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SIGMA v5.0 · Markov regime model · Structural risk, not a price forecast · Not financial advice
How it is derived
Read the full method- I
Reality Gap
An official figure against a physical signal expensive to fake — grid load against reported output. A ministry can revise a statistic; not the grid.
- II
Central Bank Credibility
What a central bank says against what the bond market prices. When the two disagree, one of them is about to be embarrassed.
- III
Narrative vs Physics
Where the official story runs ahead of the measurable world. Every term that moved the score is listed, so it can be argued with.
- IV
Cascade
Propagates a shock across the sovereign network to show the order in which things break. Deterministic: same seed, same cascade.
- V
Second Opinion
A regime-switching model fit on market prices alone — sharing nothing with SIGMA — reads every country independently. Agreement is evidence; divergence is published.
Access
THE READING, METHOD & RECORD STAY FREE
PUBLIC
Free
Anyone. No account.
- Daily reading for every country
- The dispatch
- The full ledger, including the misses
- The method, in full
ANALYST
$470/mo
Independent analysts, family offices, advisors.
- Everything public
- All 22 scores with regime classification
- Sector scores and the correlation matrix
- Live FRED macro calibration
- API — 60 requests/day
DIRECTOR
$899/mo
Fund managers, risk officers, institutional desks.
- Everything in Analyst
- Full SIGMA breakdown — all eight layers
- Historical analog engine
- Briefs, with PDF export
- Higher API limits