Verifiable intelligence · Policy reality gap
Central Bank Credibility
What a central bank says vs. what the bond market is actually pricing. When the rhetoric and the benchmark yield disagree, one of them is wrong — and that gap is where the next repricing lives.
How to read it
- Behind the curve — the bank sounds dovish/complacent while yields are rising. The market thinks it is underestimating inflation.
- Market disbelieves — the bank sounds hawkish/"higher-for-longer" while yields are falling. The market is pricing a forced pivot.
- Credible — rhetoric and the market-implied direction agree.
The rhetoric stance is a transparent lexicon score — every hawkish/dovish term is shown below, negations included. The market side is the standardized trend of the benchmark yield over 20 trading sessions. Both carry provenance. No verified feed ⇒ we say so.
Federal Reserve
Measuredas of 2026-10-13 · US 10-Year Treasury yield
Credible
Rhetoric (0.60) and market-implied direction (0.60) agree (within ±0.4) — guidance is credible.
European Central Bank
No market feedas of 2026-10-13 · Euro-area 10-Year benchmark yield
Insufficient yield history (0 < 25 obs) — no market-implied stance.
Bank of England
No market feedas of 2026-10-13 · UK 10-Year Gilt yield
Insufficient yield history (0 < 25 obs) — no market-implied stance.
Rhetoric stance is a transparent lexicon score; market stance is a standardized yield trend. Neither is investment advice. A gap flags that guidance and the market disagree — resolved when the bank's next decision (or the market) settles it. Methodology follows the open FOMC-communication NLP literature (Shah, Paturi & Chava, ACL 2023). See the Reality Gap and Narrative vs Reality.