Verifiable intelligence · Policy reality gap

Central Bank Credibility

What a central bank says vs. what the bond market is actually pricing. When the rhetoric and the benchmark yield disagree, one of them is wrong — and that gap is where the next repricing lives.

How to read it

Behind the curve — the bank sounds dovish/complacent while yields are rising. The market thinks it is underestimating inflation.
Market disbelieves — the bank sounds hawkish/"higher-for-longer" while yields are falling. The market is pricing a forced pivot.
Credible — rhetoric and the market-implied direction agree.

The rhetoric stance is a transparent lexicon score — every hawkish/dovish term is shown below, negations included. The market side is the standardized trend of the benchmark yield over 20 trading sessions. Both carry provenance. No verified feed ⇒ we say so.

Federal Reserve

Measured

as of 2026-07-02 · US 10-Year Treasury yield

HAWKISH +0.50MARKET -0.26

+0.7556

Market disbelieves

Rhetoric reads hawkish (0.50) but the bond market is pricing easing (yields falling) (-0.26). Gap 0.76 — the market disbelieves the guidance and is pricing a pivot.

▲higher▲cuts▲cut▼cut(2 negation-flipped)

European Central Bank

No market feed

as of 2026-07-02 · Euro-area 10-Year benchmark yield

HAWKISH +1.00

Insufficient yield history (0 < 25 obs) — no market-implied stance.

▲raise▲hikes▲hikes

Bank of England

No market feed

as of 2026-07-02 · UK 10-Year Gilt yield

HAWKISH +0.50

Insufficient yield history (0 < 25 obs) — no market-implied stance.

▲tightening▲hike▲raise▼support

Rhetoric stance is a transparent lexicon score; market stance is a standardized yield trend. Neither is investment advice. A gap flags that guidance and the market disagree — resolved when the bank's next decision (or the market) settles it. Methodology follows the open FOMC-communication NLP literature (Shah, Paturi & Chava, ACL 2023). See the Reality Gap and Narrative vs Reality.