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Intelligence · Romania

Romania
Intelligence Feed

Predictions auto-generated on live data: BNR, ECB SDW, Eurostat, Yahoo Finance, GDELT. Models: RSI-14, MACD, Hurst (R/S), Z-score 30d, ROBOR-EURIBOR spread, sector breadth. SHA256 hash recorded before the event.

EUR / RON
5.2344-0.10%
BNR Rate
6.50%
CPI YoY (RO)
8.6%
ROBOR 3M ~
8.00%
Verified Track Record
50%of 2 predictions
1
Confirmed
0
Partial
1
Refuted
Active Predictions (26)
EUR/RON Direction
BEARISH
T+7
PENDING
7
DAYS

EUR/RON SCADE — RON se apreciaza

Confidence68%
Signals
›RSI 54 — zona neutra
›Hurst 0.781 — regim trending, momentum negativ persista
›MACD histogram negativ — momentum descendent
±0.0079–0.0283 RON
EUR/RON = 5.2386
SHA256 · effc89410adac07c
Target: 17 iun. 2026
Rata BNR (T+30)
NEUTRAL
T+30
PENDING
30
DAYS

BNR MENTINE — hold cel mai probabil

Confidence80%
Signals
›EUR/RON stabil — presiune valutara moderata
›CPI Romania 8.6% YoY (Eurostat) — inflatie ridicata, BNR prudenta
›Ciclu ECB de taieri in desfasurare — BNR urmeaza cu decalaj 1-2 sedinte
0 bps
Rata BNR = 6.50%
SHA256 · ce51fb4a1f7744d8
Target: 10 iul. 2026
Risc Politic Romania
NEUTRAL
T+14
PENDING
14
DAYS

RISC STABIL — scor compozit ~50/100

Confidence48%
Signals
›Date insuficiente pentru semnale clare
±5–12 puncte
Risc politic = 50/100
SHA256 · 4a3136b0b5ca151e
Target: 24 iun. 2026
Inflatie Romania (T+30)
BEARISH
T+30
PENDING
30
DAYS

INFLATIE IN SCADERE — CPI estimat sub 8.3%

Confidence57%
Signals
›CPI Romania curent: 8.6% YoY (sursa: Eurostat HICP)
›CPI 8.6% la nivel ridicat — efecte de baza favorabile in urmatoarea luna
±0.2–0.6 puncte procentuale
CPI = 8.6% YoY
SHA256 · 190a461688b0e663
Target: 10 iul. 2026
Inflatie Romania (T+30)
BEARISH
T+30
PENDING
29
DAYS

INFLATIE IN SCADERE — CPI estimat sub 8.3%

Confidence57%
Signals
›CPI Romania curent: 8.6% YoY (sursa: Eurostat HICP)
›CPI 8.6% la nivel ridicat — efecte de baza favorabile in urmatoarea luna
±0.2–0.6 puncte procentuale
CPI = 8.6% YoY
SHA256 · 9414cf66c41bfd3c
Target: 09 iul. 2026
Rata BNR (T+30)
NEUTRAL
T+30
PENDING
29
DAYS

BNR MENTINE — hold cel mai probabil

Confidence80%
Signals
›EUR/RON stabil — presiune valutara moderata
›CPI Romania 8.6% YoY (Eurostat) — inflatie ridicata, BNR prudenta
›Ciclu ECB de taieri in desfasurare — BNR urmeaza cu decalaj 1-2 sedinte
0 bps
Rata BNR = 6.50%
SHA256 · 8e27cfd1176398e4
Target: 09 iul. 2026
Risc Politic Romania
NEUTRAL
T+14
PENDING
13
DAYS

RISC STABIL — scor compozit ~50/100

Confidence48%
Signals
›Date insuficiente pentru semnale clare
±5–12 puncte
Risc politic = 50/100
SHA256 · 736f5e2543af1272
Target: 23 iun. 2026
EUR/RON Direction
NEUTRAL
T+7
PENDING
6
DAYS

EUR/RON in consoliare laterala

Confidence56%
Signals
›RSI 62 — zona neutra
›MACD histogram negativ — momentum descendent
±0.0079–0.0283 RON
EUR/RON = 5.2436
SHA256 · 6cbcec8cdd95b707
Target: 16 iun. 2026
Inflatie Romania (T+30)
BEARISH
T+30
PENDING
28
DAYS

INFLATIE IN SCADERE — CPI estimat sub 8.3%

Confidence57%
Signals
›CPI Romania curent: 8.6% YoY (sursa: Eurostat HICP)
›CPI 8.6% la nivel ridicat — efecte de baza favorabile in urmatoarea luna
±0.2–0.6 puncte procentuale
CPI = 8.6% YoY
SHA256 · 0c806eedd2d042f1
Target: 08 iul. 2026
EUR/RON Direction
NEUTRAL
T+7
PENDING
5
DAYS

EUR/RON in consoliare laterala

Confidence56%
Signals
›RSI 62 — zona neutra
›MACD histogram negativ — momentum descendent
±0.0079–0.0283 RON
EUR/RON = 5.2436
SHA256 · fb415578ecbb39e5
Target: 15 iun. 2026
Risc Politic Romania
NEUTRAL
T+14
PENDING
12
DAYS

RISC STABIL — scor compozit ~50/100

Confidence48%
Signals
›Date insuficiente pentru semnale clare
±5–12 puncte
Risc politic = 50/100
SHA256 · b6142e23f0fbfa66
Target: 22 iun. 2026
Rata BNR (T+30)
NEUTRAL
T+30
PENDING
28
DAYS

BNR MENTINE — hold cel mai probabil

Confidence80%
Signals
›EUR/RON stabil — presiune valutara moderata
›CPI Romania 8.6% YoY (Eurostat) — inflatie ridicata, BNR prudenta
›Ciclu ECB de taieri in desfasurare — BNR urmeaza cu decalaj 1-2 sedinte
0 bps
Rata BNR = 6.50%
SHA256 · 9908d5eb3ea83bf9
Target: 08 iul. 2026
Inflatie Romania (T+30)
BEARISH
T+30
PENDING
25
DAYS

INFLATIE IN SCADERE — CPI estimat sub 8.3%

Confidence57%
Signals
›CPI Romania curent: 8.6% YoY (sursa: Eurostat HICP)
›CPI 8.6% la nivel ridicat — efecte de baza favorabile in urmatoarea luna
±0.2–0.6 puncte procentuale
CPI = 8.6% YoY
SHA256 · bab83e39ddc3630c
Target: 05 iul. 2026
Rata BNR (T+30)
NEUTRAL
T+30
PENDING
25
DAYS

BNR MENTINE — hold cel mai probabil

Confidence80%
Signals
›EUR/RON stabil — presiune valutara moderata
›CPI Romania 8.6% YoY (Eurostat) — inflatie ridicata, BNR prudenta
›Ciclu ECB de taieri in desfasurare — BNR urmeaza cu decalaj 1-2 sedinte
0 bps
Rata BNR = 6.50%
SHA256 · 3e1ce9163b40463a
Target: 05 iul. 2026
Risc Politic Romania
NEUTRAL
T+14
PENDING
9
DAYS

RISC STABIL — scor compozit ~50/100

Confidence48%
Signals
›Date insuficiente pentru semnale clare
±5–12 puncte
Risc politic = 50/100
SHA256 · 3b9b1a5f35c7c18f
Target: 19 iun. 2026
EUR/RON Direction
BEARISH
T+7
PENDING
2
DAYS

EUR/RON SCADE — RON se apreciaza

Confidence68%
Signals
›RSI 76 — EUR supraevaluat, corectie probabila
›MACD histogram negativ — momentum descendent
±0.0079–0.0284 RON
EUR/RON = 5.2581
SHA256 · fc717d39fedafbc7
Target: 12 iun. 2026
Inflatie Romania (T+30)
BEARISH
T+30
PENDING
24
DAYS

INFLATIE IN SCADERE — CPI estimat sub 8.3%

Confidence57%
Signals
›CPI Romania curent: 8.6% YoY (sursa: Eurostat HICP)
›CPI 8.6% la nivel ridicat — efecte de baza favorabile in urmatoarea luna
±0.2–0.6 puncte procentuale
CPI = 8.6% YoY
SHA256 · 9c23d3c843ef499c
Target: 04 iul. 2026
EUR/RON Direction
NEUTRAL
T+7
PENDING
1
DAYS

EUR/RON in consoliare laterala

Confidence58%
Signals
›RSI 79 — EUR supraevaluat, corectie probabila
›Hurst 0.758 — regim trending, momentum pozitiv persista
›MACD histogram negativ — momentum descendent
±0.0079–0.0284 RON
EUR/RON = 5.2592
SHA256 · e75e36f6dc88dda5
Target: 11 iun. 2026
Risc Politic Romania
NEUTRAL
T+14
PENDING
8
DAYS

RISC STABIL — scor compozit ~50/100

Confidence48%
Signals
›Date insuficiente pentru semnale clare
±5–12 puncte
Risc politic = 50/100
SHA256 · fe77a402cee5ddad
Target: 18 iun. 2026
Rata BNR (T+30)
BEARISH
T+30
PENDING
24
DAYS

BNR REDUCE — taiere 25bps probabila

Confidence60%
Signals
›Ciclu ECB de taieri in desfasurare — BNR urmeaza cu decalaj 1-2 sedinte
−25 bps
Rata BNR = 6.50%
SHA256 · 4cf51378f35b51eb
Target: 04 iul. 2026
Inflatie Romania (T+30)
BEARISH
T+30
PENDING
23
DAYS

INFLATIE IN SCADERE — CPI estimat sub 8.3%

Confidence57%
Signals
›CPI Romania curent: 8.6% YoY (sursa: Eurostat HICP)
›CPI 8.6% la nivel ridicat — efecte de baza favorabile in urmatoarea luna
±0.2–0.6 puncte procentuale
CPI = 8.6% YoY
SHA256 · 3bbfcdc94d5cd35e
Target: 03 iul. 2026
Risc Politic Romania
NEUTRAL
T+14
PENDING
7
DAYS

RISC STABIL — scor compozit ~50/100

Confidence48%
Signals
›Date insuficiente pentru semnale clare
±5–12 puncte
Risc politic = 50/100
SHA256 · ed0b7f554dfde9cb
Target: 17 iun. 2026
Rata BNR (T+30)
BEARISH
T+30
PENDING
23
DAYS

BNR REDUCE — taiere 25bps probabila

Confidence60%
Signals
›Ciclu ECB de taieri in desfasurare — BNR urmeaza cu decalaj 1-2 sedinte
−25 bps
Rata BNR = 6.50%
SHA256 · 5b887d8419a9f905
Target: 03 iul. 2026
Inflatie Romania (T+30)
BEARISH
T+30
PENDING
22
DAYS

INFLATIE IN SCADERE — CPI estimat sub 8.3%

Confidence57%
Signals
›CPI Romania curent: 8.6% YoY (sursa: Eurostat HICP)
›CPI 8.6% la nivel ridicat — efecte de baza favorabile in urmatoarea luna
±0.2–0.6 puncte procentuale
CPI = 8.6% YoY
SHA256 · 3ea05e209f8094e1
Target: 02 iul. 2026
Rata BNR (T+30)
BEARISH
T+30
PENDING
22
DAYS

BNR REDUCE — taiere 25bps probabila

Confidence60%
Signals
›Ciclu ECB de taieri in desfasurare — BNR urmeaza cu decalaj 1-2 sedinte
−25 bps
Rata BNR = 6.50%
SHA256 · b159b8a05c72e2f9
Target: 02 iul. 2026
Risc Politic Romania
NEUTRAL
T+14
PENDING
6
DAYS

RISC STABIL — scor compozit ~50/100

Confidence48%
Signals
›Date insuficiente pentru semnale clare
±5–12 puncte
Risc politic = 50/100
SHA256 · 3c708999f33fc791
Target: 16 iun. 2026
Technical Indicators
EUR / RON
RSI-14
53.6Neutral
Hurst H
0.781Trending
Z-Score 30z
+0.35σ
Momentum 5z
-0.33%
Momentum 20z
+0.65%
BNR oficial
5.2344bnr.ro
Romania Macro
Interest Rates
ROBOR 3M (estimat)
8.00%BNR + 1.5pp
BNR Policy Rate
6.50%BNR
CPI YoY (HICP)
8.6%Eurostat
Verified Predictions (2)
REFUTED
EUR/RON Direction · T+7
03 iun. 2026 → 10 iun. 2026
NEUTRAL
CONFIRMED
EUR/RON Direction · T+7
02 iun. 2026 → 09 iun. 2026
NEUTRAL
Data Sources
BNR XML API
bnr.ro
ECB EUR/RON
ECB SDW · primar
Yahoo EUR/RON
EURRON=X · backup
Yahoo BET
^BET
GDELT Romania
tone 30z
EURIBOR 3M
ECB SDW
ROBOR 3M
bnr.ro scrape
Eurostat CPI
HICP YoY
BET Constituents
TLV, SNP, H2O, TGN, FP

Predictions are auto-generated by mathematical models applied to live data (RSI, MACD, Hurst R/S, Z-score). SHA256 hash computed from payload before the event — no retroactive adjustments. Not investment advice.