Transparency
Every prediction made by the SIGMA engine is recorded here with a SHA256 anchor at time of creation. Verified against real price action at T+30, T+60, and T+90 days. Zero look-ahead bias.
Total Predictions
54
Verified (T90)
0
Weighted Accuracy
—
Pending Verification
54
| Date | Ticker | SIGMA | Direction | Regime | T30 | T60 | T90 | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | TNX | 46.9 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | 60179e89cc36f51f |
| 2026-06-10 | DAX | 48.8 | → Neutral | accumulation | — | — | — | 41b4ae71475dcf38 |
| 2026-06-10 | XAUUSD | 38.7 | ↓ Bearish | stable | — | — | — | 375e48c0520d505e |
| 2026-06-10 | BTCUSD | 56.7 | → Neutral | accumulation | — | — | — | 27a32bcc1809f460 |
| 2026-06-10 | EURUSD | 44.1 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | 4cf432816234f184 |
| 2026-06-10 | SPX | 46.4 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | da3af8657392eb4e |
| 2026-06-09 | TNX | 46.9 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | 2a686b25f893b693 |
| 2026-06-09 | DAX | 48.8 | → Neutral | accumulation | — | — | — | f72d9e3931839912 |
| 2026-06-09 | XAUUSD | 38.7 | ↓ Bearish | stable | — | — | — | 7845d88431a876e7 |
| 2026-06-09 | BTCUSD | 56.7 | → Neutral | accumulation | — | — | — | 388b258d129f8491 |
| 2026-06-09 | EURUSD | 44.1 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | 3a389ccb5e2e3c33 |
| 2026-06-09 | SPX | 46.4 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | e5e13ddecf73b34e |
| 2026-06-08 | TNX | 46.9 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | ddff74bd07f114e0 |
| 2026-06-08 | DAX | 48.8 | → Neutral | accumulation | — | — | — | be860eb58e997ecd |
| 2026-06-08 | XAUUSD | 38.7 | ↓ Bearish | stable | — | — | — | 62d28b8c8018218b |
| 2026-06-08 | BTCUSD | 56.7 | → Neutral | accumulation | — | — | — | 2847e08675b3d9af |
| 2026-06-08 | EURUSD | 44.1 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | 485b707c82e74ce4 |
| 2026-06-08 | SPX | 46.4 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | 143136bcf97540c5 |
| 2026-06-07 | TNX | 46.9 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | f5c0676e0e179e44 |
| 2026-06-07 | DAX | 48.8 | → Neutral | accumulation | — | — | — | 3692e644cbe3d5d2 |
| 2026-06-07 | XAUUSD | 38.7 | ↓ Bearish | stable | — | — | — | 889eacc9facd3de8 |
| 2026-06-07 | BTCUSD | 56.7 | → Neutral | accumulation | — | — | — | febed5521ddcb04a |
| 2026-06-07 | EURUSD | 44.1 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | 17a5a55b7ec67599 |
| 2026-06-07 | SPX | 46.4 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | bb3081ceba92e63c |
| 2026-06-06 | TNX | 46.9 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | 9ccffe1f5d8ba69f |
| 2026-06-06 | DAX | 48.8 | → Neutral | accumulation | — | — | — | 35b22c7203d2113d |
| 2026-06-06 | XAUUSD | 38.7 | ↓ Bearish | stable | — | — | — | 367b163368f7b8a5 |
| 2026-06-06 | BTCUSD | 56.7 | → Neutral | accumulation | — | — | — | fb4d1e81b13e7ca9 |
| 2026-06-06 | EURUSD | 44.1 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | e0e3910d0a3401c4 |
| 2026-06-06 | SPX | 46.4 | ↑ Bullish | stable | — | — | — | ebc2a3f803890a53 |
| 2026-06-05 | TNX | 75.2 | ↓ Bearish | critical | — | — | — | bba8bbeebdd21fd3 |
| 2026-06-05 | DAX | 78.4 | ↓ Bearish | critical | — | — | — | c7fdc92995fc5df5 |
| 2026-06-05 | XAUUSD | 46.6 | ↓ Bearish | stable | — | — | — | 6fe5048822f642ab |
| 2026-06-05 | BTCUSD | 92.0 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | e3aad0d3deb9d394 |
| 2026-06-05 | EURUSD | 61.3 | ↓ Bearish | accumulation | — | — | — | 1caed26aa1c9efc3 |
| 2026-06-05 | SPX | 69.8 | ↓ Bearish | accumulation | — | — | — | 9980518ad87ba254 |
| 2026-06-04 | TNX | 81.2 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | ecea276421f0e11f |
| 2026-06-04 | DAX | 81.8 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 6af54c9f5e152fa9 |
| 2026-06-04 | XAUUSD | 80.3 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 110c5090c4b74e6e |
| 2026-06-04 | BTCUSD | 83.7 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 3b14789437ee039e |
| 2026-06-04 | EURUSD | 82.8 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 5cd51f9ecdc003cd |
| 2026-06-04 | SPX | 81.9 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 1be17b0c30652543 |
| 2026-06-03 | TNX | 81.2 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 376516d3964008df |
| 2026-06-03 | DAX | 81.8 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 41fac42f7f240d22 |
| 2026-06-03 | XAUUSD | 80.3 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | c71940588c50959e |
| 2026-06-03 | BTCUSD | 83.7 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 6c58c6c035f061b0 |
| 2026-06-03 | EURUSD | 82.8 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 3c3ee98a2ff730b3 |
| 2026-06-03 | SPX | 81.9 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | b7cdf34d0b4f2e88 |
| 2026-06-02 | TNX | 81.2 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 1e78ea5cba3b973c |
| 2026-06-02 | DAX | 81.8 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 133af411fbe569e2 |
| 2026-06-02 | XAUUSD | 80.3 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 143aed285a5584d8 |
| 2026-06-02 | BTCUSD | 83.7 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 2db502f9d03b854b |
| 2026-06-02 | EURUSD | 82.8 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | ad6f011c56359fbe |
| 2026-06-02 | SPX | 81.9 | ↓ Bearish | collapse | — | — | — | 183e7bf1caf96e25 |
Backtested Alpha Calculator
If you shorted (or hedged) every SIGMA alert above threshold — last 12 months
Total P&L
-9.5%
Final Capital
$9,054
Win Rate
88%
Signals fired
24
Signal log — SIGMA ≥ 65 alerts (≥ 65 — Elevated)
Hypothetical backtest based on SIGMA v5.0 calibration data. Returns represent price moves in sovereign/currency instruments after alert trigger. Past simulation does not guarantee future results. Position sizing assumes equal weight per signal, no leverage, no transaction costs. Win = bearish confirmed (price fell >3%). SIGMA alerts do not constitute trading advice.
Methodology
Predictions are recorded at the moment of EDGAR filing detection — not at period end — eliminating look-ahead bias. Each record is SHA256-anchored from ticker, date, Noosphere Score, and regime at time of creation. SIGMA > 60 implies bearish (elevated risk), < 35 implies bullish (low risk), otherwise neutral. Verification uses price data from Stooq at T+30, T+60, and T+90 calendar days. Weighted accuracy = (Confirmed + Partial × 0.5) / Verified.
Read full SIGMA methodology →