Transparency
Prediction ledger
Every prediction the SIGMA engine makes is recorded here with a SHA-256 anchor at the moment it is created, then verified against real price action at T+30, T+60 and T+90 days. Zero look-ahead bias.
Total predictions
100
Verified (T90)
0
Weighted accuracy
—
Pending verification
42
| Date | Ticker | SIGMA | Direction | Regime | T30 | T60 | T90 | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | TNX | 47.2 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | f3bb21f6a4776dea |
| 2026-10-13 | DAX | 47.6 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 8e702429f6625849 |
| 2026-10-13 | XAUUSD | 38.6 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | eee465034e331275 |
| 2026-10-13 | BTCUSD | 58.1 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 19733159e2f60a5b |
| 2026-10-13 | EURUSD | 44.7 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 3044e3d4d10f7b15 |
| 2026-10-13 | SPX | 49.4 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | bf2d5c4f24323559 |
| 2026-10-12 | TNX | 46.8 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | e6d2b28bd069d47b |
| 2026-10-12 | DAX | 48.1 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 92b138d8b445aeda |
| 2026-10-12 | XAUUSD | 39.2 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 81b469452242c6bb |
| 2026-10-12 | BTCUSD | 57.4 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | cfcf9bc699d32964 |
| 2026-10-12 | EURUSD | 44.6 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 5a56c9b397e1147c |
| 2026-10-12 | SPX | 49.2 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | 4b2ddae47e6e1805 |
| 2026-10-11 | TNX | 46.6 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 1138f68c07125609 |
| 2026-10-11 | DAX | 48.0 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 7a83162518abdd98 |
| 2026-10-11 | XAUUSD | 39.1 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 42056baab20febe5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BTCUSD | 57.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | cf19aacacaf4907e |
| 2026-10-11 | EURUSD | 44.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 64e9172f836368db |
| 2026-10-11 | SPX | 49.0 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | d9be382c55ab21b1 |
| 2026-10-10 | TNX | 46.6 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 166030c9f5d92637 |
| 2026-10-10 | DAX | 48.0 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 45abdbd95476b8a3 |
| 2026-10-10 | XAUUSD | 39.0 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 67c02b3732e71836 |
| 2026-10-10 | BTCUSD | 57.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | d370a7c1c2b01e5c |
| 2026-10-10 | EURUSD | 44.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 31be4d923b2a207a |
| 2026-10-10 | SPX | 49.0 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | c810301c69c75aac |
| 2026-10-09 | TNX | 46.6 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 3889f71d7820a952 |
| 2026-10-09 | DAX | 47.3 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 8c2a7847afc99040 |
| 2026-10-09 | XAUUSD | 39.0 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | e6f3947c266e62b5 |
| 2026-10-09 | BTCUSD | 58.1 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 7c01cc0e537086c7 |
| 2026-10-09 | EURUSD | 44.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 8006dc54e1eef512 |
| 2026-10-09 | SPX | 48.9 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | fc47883bec868768 |
| 2026-10-08 | TNX | 46.7 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | d0d04dd70ace9a31 |
| 2026-10-08 | DAX | 47.3 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 41b4393efca11062 |
| 2026-10-08 | XAUUSD | 39.0 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | cff0a84ac6afec17 |
| 2026-10-08 | BTCUSD | 58.1 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | bdfec2a5a4932416 |
| 2026-10-08 | EURUSD | 44.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 83e00050e14b5786 |
| 2026-10-08 | SPX | 49.0 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 223b8a214c876da1 |
| 2026-10-07 | TNX | 46.8 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | f85eba28a14ca472 |
| 2026-10-07 | DAX | 47.3 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 954271bc2cd7e382 |
| 2026-10-07 | XAUUSD | 39.0 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | d2454b09a4455e7a |
| 2026-10-07 | BTCUSD | 58.4 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 93cf74e9663bdd84 |
| 2026-10-07 | EURUSD | 44.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 3d28811f79791507 |
| 2026-10-07 | SPX | 49.0 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | 743bb3396e9e2f64 |
| 2026-10-06 | TNX | 46.7 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 13fbe4b2b44b7e15 |
| 2026-10-06 | DAX | 47.3 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 1c9aaf2901d8c3b8 |
| 2026-10-06 | XAUUSD | 39.0 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 137c3fe3b0656c79 |
| 2026-10-06 | BTCUSD | 57.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 206b9a639d8e5328 |
| 2026-10-06 | EURUSD | 44.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | b272183d1608555f |
| 2026-10-06 | SPX | 48.7 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | 42fbc65efe988e1b |
| 2026-10-05 | TNX | 46.9 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | e9306ea8ee835688 |
| 2026-10-05 | DAX | 47.3 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 6cbdc86c3a885b46 |
| 2026-10-05 | XAUUSD | 38.9 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 5bcbf8cbac1497f8 |
| 2026-10-05 | BTCUSD | 57.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 19e8816c056091bd |
| 2026-10-05 | EURUSD | 44.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 943006731bc818da |
| 2026-10-05 | SPX | 47.7 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 405e2c80e20df2eb |
| 2026-10-04 | TNX | 46.8 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 8f807c814977f756 |
| 2026-10-04 | DAX | 47.2 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 7fb63897c7df347f |
| 2026-10-04 | XAUUSD | 39.0 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 3a54fbfebbb03a9a |
| 2026-10-04 | BTCUSD | 57.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 3fe1f85f64e8e65d |
| 2026-10-04 | EURUSD | 44.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | c3c9c89784f92dbe |
| 2026-10-04 | SPX | 47.8 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | e06b684e5e657b7c |
| 2026-10-03 | TNX | 46.8 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | e9b7c6c8d3be11ef |
| 2026-10-03 | DAX | 47.2 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 55dfa7f1867783d9 |
| 2026-10-03 | XAUUSD | 39.0 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | ef250e2c8d36071e |
| 2026-10-03 | BTCUSD | 57.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 4d7e50144ad72951 |
| 2026-10-03 | EURUSD | 44.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 5f7363b062540fee |
| 2026-10-03 | SPX | 47.7 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 891f4abc1677b323 |
| 2026-10-02 | TNX | 46.9 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 7dce9b6c206b8668 |
| 2026-10-02 | DAX | 48.0 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 17a11d1c410c6ef3 |
| 2026-10-02 | XAUUSD | 38.2 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 875cb79c49cfd346 |
| 2026-10-02 | BTCUSD | 57.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | b4474b23f97c4efb |
| 2026-10-02 | EURUSD | 44.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | c62d12a0d4cb5bf1 |
| 2026-10-02 | SPX | 47.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 679f2c94368ef419 |
| 2026-10-01 | TNX | 46.9 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 0ce7adff2340da1d |
| 2026-10-01 | DAX | 48.0 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 24a9ea5886ff0401 |
| 2026-10-01 | XAUUSD | 38.2 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 096e5ba707b687b8 |
| 2026-10-01 | BTCUSD | 57.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 75cca4d9ca422966 |
| 2026-10-01 | EURUSD | 44.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | b41c43a64622085f |
| 2026-10-01 | SPX | 47.7 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 33443019c0f482fd |
| 2026-09-30 | TNX | 48.0 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 196449ca512c7bcc |
| 2026-09-30 | DAX | 49.0 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 3fad2bd5637fd0b1 |
| 2026-09-30 | XAUUSD | 39.9 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 563961effd39e264 |
| 2026-09-30 | BTCUSD | 58.7 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | cafff8e2b1a77148 |
| 2026-09-30 | EURUSD | 45.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 4ad298894d2c86dc |
| 2026-09-30 | SPX | 49.2 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 4bde434b2ce6df9f |
| 2026-09-29 | TNX | 47.9 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | c35e1d0a843c0dfe |
| 2026-09-29 | DAX | 48.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | c4e80debc6d4c543 |
| 2026-09-29 | XAUUSD | 39.8 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | cbdbc38d408f5936 |
| 2026-09-29 | BTCUSD | 58.7 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 4b66b1baf7e835ce |
| 2026-09-29 | EURUSD | 45.3 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | c3df9a1ec07d086f |
| 2026-09-29 | SPX | 49.4 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | af91affca10495e6 |
| 2026-09-28 | TNX | 47.7 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | f9c44ff6472f05bd |
| 2026-09-28 | DAX | 48.7 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 96328a6d5233ec68 |
| 2026-09-28 | XAUUSD | 39.6 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 860125cb100785ef |
| 2026-09-28 | BTCUSD | 58.5 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 26510b53f8f7e127 |
| 2026-09-28 | EURUSD | 45.1 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | bc3afd619afb9a41 |
| 2026-09-28 | SPX | 49.6 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | 4503487d0e9286a5 |
| 2026-09-27 | TNX | 47.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 274c8cd23a286d58 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAX | 48.5 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 4ca08db6070a0678 |
| 2026-09-27 | XAUUSD | 38.7 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 789f00a40e61f54c |
| 2026-09-27 | BTCUSD | 58.6 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 5bbe44565dd814b3 |
Backtested alpha calculator
If you shorted (or hedged) every SIGMA alert above threshold — last 12 months
Total P&L
-9.5%
Final capital
$9,054
Win rate
88%
Signals fired
24
Signal log — SIGMA ≥ 65 alerts (≥ 65 — Elevated)
2025-06Romania RONσ78critical-11.2%$-56
2025-06Turkey CDSσ72critical-8.7%$-43
2025-07EU Banksσ68accumulation-5.3%$-26
2025-07US CREσ71critical-9.1%$-45
2025-08China CNYσ65accumulation-6.8%$-34
2025-08Italy BTPσ74critical-12.4%$-62
2025-09France OATσ67accumulation-4.2%$-21
2025-09Greece NFPσ69accumulation+2.1%+$11
2025-10Argentina ARSσ81collapse-18.6%$-93
2025-10UK Giltsσ66accumulation-3.8%$-19
2025-11Japan JGBσ65accumulation-5.1%$-25
2025-11Spain IBEXσ68critical-7.3%$-36
2025-12Poland PLNσ70critical-6.9%$-35
2025-12Brazil BRLσ73critical-10.5%$-52
2026-01Hungary HUFσ76critical-8.2%$-41
2026-01Czech CZKσ67accumulation-3.4%$-17
2026-02Portugalσ65accumulation-2.9%$-14
2026-02Belgium BELσ70critical-9.7%$-48
2026-03Korea KRWσ66accumulation+1.8%+$9
2026-03India INRσ68accumulation-5.6%$-28
2026-04Mexico MXNσ71critical-7.8%$-39
2026-04Colombia COPσ74critical-11.1%$-56
2026-05Egypt EGPσ79collapse-15.3%$-77
2026-05Nigeria NGNσ83collapse-19.2%$-96
Hypothetical backtest based on SIGMA v5.0 calibration data. Returns represent price moves in sovereign/currency instruments after alert trigger. Past simulation does not guarantee future results. Position sizing assumes equal weight per signal, no leverage, no transaction costs. Win = bearish confirmed (price fell >3%). SIGMA alerts do not constitute trading advice.
Methodology
Predictions are recorded at the moment of EDGAR filing detection — not at period end — eliminating look-ahead bias. Each record is SHA-256-anchored from ticker, date, Noosphere Score and regime at creation. SIGMA > 60 implies bearish (elevated risk), < 35 implies bullish (low risk), otherwise neutral. Verification uses Stooq price data at T+30, T+60 and T+90 calendar days. Weighted accuracy = (Confirmed + Partial × 0.5) / Verified.