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Prediction ledger
Every prediction the SIGMA engine makes is recorded here with a SHA-256 anchor at the moment it is created, then verified against real price action at T+30, T+60 and T+90 days. Zero look-ahead bias.
Total predictions
100
Verified (T90)
0
Weighted accuracy
—
Pending verification
48
| Date | Ticker | SIGMA | Direction | Regime | T30 | T60 | T90 | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | TNX | 46.9 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 75411ea4f9b5d9d5 |
| 2026-08-25 | DAX | 48.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | fc9f1c5cbd4f498b |
| 2026-08-25 | XAUUSD | 38.7 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 73d51a85fcf0f503 |
| 2026-08-25 | BTCUSD | 56.7 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 2dce4e782c17bd1f |
| 2026-08-25 | EURUSD | 44.1 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | bf1a4ad31a9f68c0 |
| 2026-08-25 | SPX | 46.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 2b3124b0db7663b7 |
| 2026-08-24 | TNX | 47.2 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | b01c5aa87ceb37d9 |
| 2026-08-24 | DAX | 48.8 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | 7fb5928e76038720 |
| 2026-08-24 | XAUUSD | 40.1 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | fde15098ed133754 |
| 2026-08-24 | BTCUSD | 57.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 0684640984af62e1 |
| 2026-08-24 | EURUSD | 45.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 20c3365a74cea847 |
| 2026-08-24 | SPX | 48.7 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | c72ed20536b1eda6 |
| 2026-08-23 | TNX | 47.2 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 15e2f49cb3adafe0 |
| 2026-08-23 | DAX | 48.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 9c69d810eff8e205 |
| 2026-08-23 | XAUUSD | 40.1 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 59039b6dff6c99bc |
| 2026-08-23 | BTCUSD | 57.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | a071c447393951ed |
| 2026-08-23 | EURUSD | 45.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 4b43b48694921c75 |
| 2026-08-23 | SPX | 48.0 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | f353e2f1a013cfb6 |
| 2026-08-22 | TNX | 47.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | cdff2b9e7dc20a66 |
| 2026-08-22 | DAX | 49.0 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | ccc6f1b73cb5fbfb |
| 2026-08-22 | XAUUSD | 40.3 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | c7719b7ea8c220c4 |
| 2026-08-22 | BTCUSD | 57.9 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 9fd883258f47515a |
| 2026-08-22 | EURUSD | 45.6 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | a83ae6cd3701e05b |
| 2026-08-22 | SPX | 48.2 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 9602de02af68eb9f |
| 2026-08-21 | TNX | 47.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 5a5fbde1b41c328a |
| 2026-08-21 | DAX | 49.1 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | f13241c77a74265b |
| 2026-08-21 | XAUUSD | 40.5 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 769e34bc30916470 |
| 2026-08-21 | BTCUSD | 58.2 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 1a67167b8af60ae8 |
| 2026-08-21 | EURUSD | 45.8 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 62055e927e6f0a26 |
| 2026-08-21 | SPX | 49.0 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 53cdb28f718aa24d |
| 2026-08-20 | TNX | 47.0 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | c56b136960a23eee |
| 2026-08-20 | DAX | 49.1 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | f1068e88f0fc2179 |
| 2026-08-20 | XAUUSD | 40.3 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 6ab3d0e78aa888de |
| 2026-08-20 | BTCUSD | 58.0 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 0a0bd99d2b8d9594 |
| 2026-08-20 | EURUSD | 45.6 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 91f061c38fca3eb2 |
| 2026-08-20 | SPX | 49.1 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | d061e91e7f7259c2 |
| 2026-08-19 | TNX | 47.0 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 8312dde9e4a9710e |
| 2026-08-19 | DAX | 49.0 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | d0ad60ace6d84c4e |
| 2026-08-19 | XAUUSD | 40.1 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | a03d16ad6c499667 |
| 2026-08-19 | BTCUSD | 56.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | c51dbb517aae23d1 |
| 2026-08-19 | EURUSD | 45.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 3a1c4db02d3f1d91 |
| 2026-08-19 | SPX | 49.0 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | 2bcfc6979a338896 |
| 2026-08-18 | TNX | 47.1 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 3c9f78ec101b660c |
| 2026-08-18 | DAX | 49.1 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | a07ab17c94ae0cb2 |
| 2026-08-18 | XAUUSD | 40.1 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 3d424ab246890561 |
| 2026-08-18 | BTCUSD | 56.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 76b3ce8537f9fa80 |
| 2026-08-18 | EURUSD | 45.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | ce5174d75e6ba608 |
| 2026-08-18 | SPX | 48.4 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | b6482562e93fdbac |
| 2026-08-17 | TNX | 47.1 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 70d5bec1dacea66d |
| 2026-08-17 | DAX | 49.1 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | 4c8fe18bf3e74452 |
| 2026-08-17 | XAUUSD | 40.2 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | d8d116f957204049 |
| 2026-08-17 | BTCUSD | 56.0 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 3508deb4f065fe5c |
| 2026-08-17 | EURUSD | 45.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 0600cc09b25407b4 |
| 2026-08-17 | SPX | 48.4 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | e419ccb42302e6fa |
| 2026-08-16 | TNX | 47.1 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 7a8ce461242be83a |
| 2026-08-16 | DAX | 49.1 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | aec452b6d747ffe8 |
| 2026-08-16 | XAUUSD | 40.2 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 19e37dbdd63f9ff3 |
| 2026-08-16 | BTCUSD | 56.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 6a7c64c0c896aba5 |
| 2026-08-16 | EURUSD | 45.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | ee7b3c9336d11dc5 |
| 2026-08-16 | SPX | 48.4 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | df5d9352e0299638 |
| 2026-08-15 | TNX | 47.1 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | e8da830b49f692c8 |
| 2026-08-15 | DAX | 49.2 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 81df3dac56d09c73 |
| 2026-08-15 | XAUUSD | 40.1 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 0cd89221748b9589 |
| 2026-08-15 | BTCUSD | 56.7 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 4a03d8b983a0f43f |
| 2026-08-15 | EURUSD | 45.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 9c7737f3120ae2f0 |
| 2026-08-15 | SPX | 48.4 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | c056703edab39a15 |
| 2026-08-14 | TNX | 46.9 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 386acf377d458d10 |
| 2026-08-14 | DAX | 49.1 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | e9a90172149f537b |
| 2026-08-14 | XAUUSD | 40.1 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 3a84cc942af69731 |
| 2026-08-14 | BTCUSD | 56.7 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | ac200c039adc4075 |
| 2026-08-14 | EURUSD | 45.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 99832291aad64b64 |
| 2026-08-14 | SPX | 48.4 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 801390cd655b11a0 |
| 2026-08-13 | TNX | 47.1 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | c79d644efa2dca67 |
| 2026-08-13 | DAX | 49.0 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 615984bc95c1bd5c |
| 2026-08-13 | XAUUSD | 40.1 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 469ef3c4c5ef4ad4 |
| 2026-08-13 | BTCUSD | 56.7 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 19b7e77719733611 |
| 2026-08-13 | EURUSD | 45.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | f491374f6e2a6e5d |
| 2026-08-13 | SPX | 48.4 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | fc1d2e6130ceae73 |
| 2026-08-12 | TNX | 47.1 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 6faf2eb9c221edf7 |
| 2026-08-12 | DAX | 48.9 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | dc68b831f749d207 |
| 2026-08-12 | XAUUSD | 40.1 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 8ec0bed17e20c742 |
| 2026-08-12 | BTCUSD | 56.0 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | dd357388eb164586 |
| 2026-08-12 | EURUSD | 45.4 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | b754853193618632 |
| 2026-08-12 | SPX | 48.4 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | 05984a8607d156f8 |
| 2026-08-11 | TNX | 47.2 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 90b3d789ad55beef |
| 2026-08-11 | DAX | 48.9 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | d6f64ca98ba2ac41 |
| 2026-08-11 | XAUUSD | 40.1 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | da5c15a20f8f9f91 |
| 2026-08-11 | BTCUSD | 56.1 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | 3588b042674bb01f |
| 2026-08-11 | EURUSD | 45.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | e3ba7e165cddea98 |
| 2026-08-11 | SPX | 48.4 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | dc81b88dd5b8c83c |
| 2026-08-10 | TNX | 47.0 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 81d0ed2f4073e0f9 |
| 2026-08-10 | DAX | 49.1 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | 2b36ed68c0178e62 |
| 2026-08-10 | XAUUSD | 40.1 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 6d48588798730708 |
| 2026-08-10 | BTCUSD | 57.0 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | be82f6b83c6e9907 |
| 2026-08-10 | EURUSD | 45.5 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 1a1b1d31f6325060 |
| 2026-08-10 | SPX | 48.4 | ↓ falling | critical | — | — | — | 75c3274ec93769d7 |
| 2026-08-09 | TNX | 47.0 | ↑ rising | stable | — | — | — | 8e68976753bece10 |
| 2026-08-09 | DAX | 49.1 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | c7260a80f4423e6f |
| 2026-08-09 | XAUUSD | 40.0 | ↓ falling | stable | — | — | — | 12f87ef4b161b156 |
| 2026-08-09 | BTCUSD | 56.8 | → flat | accumulation | — | — | — | d8729cceaf3b38da |
Backtested alpha calculator
If you shorted (or hedged) every SIGMA alert above threshold — last 12 months
Total P&L
-9.5%
Final capital
$9,054
Win rate
88%
Signals fired
24
Signal log — SIGMA ≥ 65 alerts (≥ 65 — Elevated)
2025-06Romania RONσ78critical-11.2%$-56
2025-06Turkey CDSσ72critical-8.7%$-43
2025-07EU Banksσ68accumulation-5.3%$-26
2025-07US CREσ71critical-9.1%$-45
2025-08China CNYσ65accumulation-6.8%$-34
2025-08Italy BTPσ74critical-12.4%$-62
2025-09France OATσ67accumulation-4.2%$-21
2025-09Greece NFPσ69accumulation+2.1%+$11
2025-10Argentina ARSσ81collapse-18.6%$-93
2025-10UK Giltsσ66accumulation-3.8%$-19
2025-11Japan JGBσ65accumulation-5.1%$-25
2025-11Spain IBEXσ68critical-7.3%$-36
2025-12Poland PLNσ70critical-6.9%$-35
2025-12Brazil BRLσ73critical-10.5%$-52
2026-01Hungary HUFσ76critical-8.2%$-41
2026-01Czech CZKσ67accumulation-3.4%$-17
2026-02Portugalσ65accumulation-2.9%$-14
2026-02Belgium BELσ70critical-9.7%$-48
2026-03Korea KRWσ66accumulation+1.8%+$9
2026-03India INRσ68accumulation-5.6%$-28
2026-04Mexico MXNσ71critical-7.8%$-39
2026-04Colombia COPσ74critical-11.1%$-56
2026-05Egypt EGPσ79collapse-15.3%$-77
2026-05Nigeria NGNσ83collapse-19.2%$-96
Hypothetical backtest based on SIGMA v5.0 calibration data. Returns represent price moves in sovereign/currency instruments after alert trigger. Past simulation does not guarantee future results. Position sizing assumes equal weight per signal, no leverage, no transaction costs. Win = bearish confirmed (price fell >3%). SIGMA alerts do not constitute trading advice.
Methodology
Predictions are recorded at the moment of EDGAR filing detection — not at period end — eliminating look-ahead bias. Each record is SHA-256-anchored from ticker, date, Noosphere Score and regime at creation. SIGMA > 60 implies bearish (elevated risk), < 35 implies bullish (low risk), otherwise neutral. Verification uses Stooq price data at T+30, T+60 and T+90 calendar days. Weighted accuracy = (Confirmed + Partial × 0.5) / Verified.