Systemic Cascade Lab
A flight simulator
for financial contagion.
Pick an origin shock. Pull the transmissibility lever. Watch a deterministic cascade propagate through the real sovereign network — regional clusters first, systemic hubs bridging across regions, peripheries last. Same inputs always produce the same cascade.
Systems hit
1/22
Infection radius
5%
Currently spreading
1
Collapsed (removed)
0
Deterministic
Seeded propagation with a stable iteration order. Reproduce any cascade from (origin, β, seed) — no black box, no run-to-run drift.
Grounded topology
Nodes and edges are built from the real country dataset: regional exposure clusters plus systemic-hub bridges (BIS r₀ ≥ 1.2).
The arbitrage
Hubs get repriced immediately; peripheral nodes 4–8 weeks later. The late-affected, low-centrality nodes are the delayed opportunity.