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SIGMA WEEKLY BRIEF

2026-08-24

The week in systemic risk.

Watch Ukraine's EWS status (90.1/100, R₀=0.84): the sub-1.0 R₀ despite highest score suggests either stabilization or a lagging indicator masking collapse dynamics—confirm which before reweighting other scores. Secondary: Turkey's R₀=1.76 is the highest transmission rate in the set, meaning its risk score could overtake Ukraine's fastest if unaddressed.

58.6/100
GLOBAL AVG
EARLY WARNINGS
🇺🇦 Ukraine

Most fragile this week

  1. 1🇺🇦 UkraineEWSCOLLAPSE90
  2. 2🇹🇷 TurkeyCRITICAL81
  3. 3🇷🇴 RomaniaCRITICAL74
  4. 4🇨🇳 ChinaACCUMULATION70
  5. 5🇮🇹 ItalyACCUMULATION67
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