SIGMA Weekly Brief

The week in systemic risk

**Watch Turkey's R₀ at 1.76** — the highest contagion multiplier in the dataset, meaning stress is actively accelerating rather than plateauing, and at 83.5/100 CRITICAL it sits closest to Ukraine's collapse threshold with sufficient scale to trigger regional spillover across Romania (R₀=1.32) and broader EM positioning. A deterioration in Turkish lira reserves or current account data this week could push the composite score above 85, the historical precursor level where EWS activation probability exceeds 70%.

Most fragile entities