SIGMA WEEKLY BRIEF
2026-10-12The week in systemic risk.
Watch Ukraine’s **90.3/100 EWS collapse score** and **R₀=0.84**—the sole active early-warning system signal indicates acute near-term default or restructuring risk, with contagion potential to Romania (74.5) and Turkey (81.6). No other jurisdiction matches Ukraine’s severity or active EWS trigger.
58.8/100
GLOBAL AVG
EARLY WARNINGS
🇺🇦 Ukraine
Most fragile this week
- 1🇺🇦 UkraineEWSCOLLAPSE90
- 2🇹🇷 TurkeyCRITICAL82
- 3🇷🇴 RomaniaCRITICAL75
- 4🇨🇳 ChinaACCUMULATION70
- 5🇮🇹 ItalyACCUMULATION68
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