SIGMA vs THE MARKET
Where is the market wrong?
Every gap between SIGMA and market-implied risk is information. Markets are priced by incentive, emotion and consensus; SIGMA is deterministic arithmetic. The distance between the two is the edge.
18
UNPRICED DANGER
market underestimates
0
OVERCROWDED FEAR
market overestimates
22
MONITORED
sovereign entities
Every entity, SIGMA vs market
| ENTITY | SIGMA | MARKET | GAP | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 62 | 30 | +32 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Germany | 48 | 18 | +30 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Netherlands | 44 | 16 | +28 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| United States | 56 | 32 | +24 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Japan | 59 | 35 | +24 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Romania | 75 | 52 | +23 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Italy | 68 | 45 | +23 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| China | 71 | 48 | +23 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Greece | 64 | 42 | +22 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Portugal | 58 | 36 | +22 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Bulgaria | 55 | 34 | +21 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Czechia | 47 | 26 | +21 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Turkey | 82 | 62 | +20 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Spain | 59 | 40 | +19 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| India | 62 | 44 | +18 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Switzerland | 29 | 12 | +17 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Hungary | 67 | 50 | +17 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| Austria | 44 | 28 | +16 | UNPRICED DANGER |
| European Union | 52 | 38 | +14 | FAIR PRICED |
| Serbia | 62 | 52 | +10 | FAIR PRICED |
| Poland | 45 | 38 | +7 | FAIR PRICED |
| UkraineEWS | 90 | 88 | +2 | FAIR PRICED |
Market-implied risk approximated from sovereign CDS spreads, yield differentials and FX-volatility proxies. A gap above 15 points is a significant signal. Not financial advice. For the statistical second opinion, see the regime cross-check.