PUBLIC RECORD · THRESHOLD SIGNAL LEDGER
Every signal, timestamped on creation.
A signal opens when SIGMA crosses its threshold with the early-warning system active, and is scored when its window closes — confirmed or refuted, never edited, never deleted. The Brier score is published live.
This page covers threshold-triggered early-warning signals only. The platform-wide prospective record, including the 181 settled Romania Intel calls, is published in the canonical record.
The history
0 signals on fileFirst signals being generated — check back tomorrow.
How signals are scored
A signal is created when SIGMA exceeds 72 with the early-warning system active for a monitored entity.
Brier score = mean((confidence − outcome)²) across resolved signals; outcome is 1 when the regime transition confirms inside its window, 0 when the window closes without it.
Signals are immutable once created. The unflattering ones stay.
The regime engines’ settled history, per engine and never pooled, lives on the record.