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Noosphere Prime · Public Record
Prediction Ledger
Every SIGMA Engine prediction, timestamped on creation and publicly verifiable on outcome. No edits. No deletions. Full Brier Score transparency.
Live Engine Statistics
Brier Score
—
lower is better · random = 0.250
Win Rate
—
0 confirmed / 0 resolved
Avg Lead Time
—
days before market repricing
Total Signals
70
0 active · 50 pending
Brier Score measures probabilistic forecast accuracy: BS = (probability − outcome)². Score of 0.250 = random guessing. Score of 0.183 = market-beating calibration. Bloomberg Terminal does not publish its Brier Score. We do.
Resolved Predictions — Full History
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Serbia
CRITICAL → COLLAPSE · 72% · 2026-06-05
pending
China
CRITICAL → COLLAPSE · 79% · 2026-06-05
pending
Turkey
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 91% · 2026-06-05
pending
Ukraine
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 94% · 2026-06-05
pending
Hungary
CRITICAL → COLLAPSE · 75% · 2026-06-05
pending
Greece
CRITICAL → COLLAPSE · 72% · 2026-06-05
pending
Italy
CRITICAL → COLLAPSE · 80% · 2026-06-05
pending
Netherlands
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 64% · 2026-06-04
pending
Switzerland
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 62% · 2026-06-04
pending
Portugal
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 63% · 2026-06-04
pending
Czechia
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 66% · 2026-06-04
pending
Bulgaria
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 67% · 2026-06-04
pending
India
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 68% · 2026-06-04
pending
Serbia
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 65% · 2026-06-04
pending
Austria
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 63% · 2026-06-04
pending
Japan
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 67% · 2026-06-04
pending
China
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 59% · 2026-06-04
pending
Turkey
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 77% · 2026-06-04
pending
Ukraine
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 66% · 2026-06-04
pending
Poland
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 65% · 2026-06-04
pending
Hungary
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 66% · 2026-06-04
pending
Spain
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 63% · 2026-06-04
pending
Italy
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 60% · 2026-06-04
pending
France
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 67% · 2026-06-04
pending
Germany
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 64% · 2026-06-04
pending
United States
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 57% · 2026-06-04
pending
European Union
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 66% · 2026-06-04
pending
Romania
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 70% · 2026-06-04
pending
Netherlands
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 64% · 2026-06-03
pending
Switzerland
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 62% · 2026-06-03
pending
Portugal
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 63% · 2026-06-03
pending
Czechia
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 66% · 2026-06-03
pending
Bulgaria
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 67% · 2026-06-03
pending
India
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 68% · 2026-06-03
pending
Serbia
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 65% · 2026-06-03
pending
Austria
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 63% · 2026-06-03
pending
Japan
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 67% · 2026-06-03
pending
China
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 59% · 2026-06-03
pending
Turkey
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 77% · 2026-06-03
pending
Ukraine
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 66% · 2026-06-03
pending
Poland
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 65% · 2026-06-03
pending
Hungary
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 66% · 2026-06-03
pending
Spain
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 63% · 2026-06-03
pending
Italy
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 60% · 2026-06-03
pending
France
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 67% · 2026-06-03
pending
Germany
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 64% · 2026-06-03
pending
United States
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 57% · 2026-06-03
pending
European Union
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 66% · 2026-06-03
pending
Romania
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 70% · 2026-06-03
pending
Netherlands
COLLAPSE → COLLAPSE · 64% · 2026-06-02
pending
Full ledger + real-time signal alerts available to Director subscribers.
Request Director Access →Scoring Methodology
Each signal is created when SIGMA_FINAL > 72 AND Early Warning System is active for a monitored entity.
Brier Score = mean((confidence/100 − outcome)²) across all resolved signals. Outcome = 1 if regime transition confirmed, 0 if refuted.
A signal is confirmed if the entity enters the predicted regime before the Kairos window closes. It is refuted if the window closes without transition.
All signals are immutable once created. No retroactive editing.