Early Warning Signal Dashboard
Poland's Early Warning Signal (EWS) composite registers SIGMA 45.0/100 (STABLE regime). The EWS system integrates Critical Slowing Down (variance increase before tipping points), Hurst exponent trend persistence, Hawkes process self-excitation intensity, and Hidden Markov Model regime probabilities.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.571, biological age 70 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=0.877, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=17.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 30.1% / accumulation 24.1% / critical 25.7% / collapse 20.1%. The Hurst exponent of 0.574 shows neutral dynamics with no strong directional persistence.
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current STABLE regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 31 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.