Credit Cycle Position
Poland's credit cycle analysis generates a SIGMA score of 45.9/100 (STABLE regime). The credit cycle position determines whether Poland is in the expansion phase (rising leverage, loosening standards), the mature phase (peak credit), or the contraction phase (deleveraging, defaults rising).
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.725, biological age 39 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=0.910, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=17.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-10-13: stable 30.9% / accumulation 24.1% / critical 25.2% / collapse 19.7%. The Hurst exponent of 0.577 shows neutral dynamics with no strong directional persistence.
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current STABLE regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 31 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.