Systemic Fragility Assessment
Poland's systemic fragility analysis yields SIGMA 46.2/100 in the STABLE regime, with Minsky cycle indicators suggesting mid-cycle HEDGE-phase dynamics with predominantly income-based debt servicing capacity.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.817, biological age 26 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=0.877, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=17.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 29.6% / accumulation 25.6% / critical 25.2% / collapse 19.6%. The Hurst exponent of 0.592 shows neutral dynamics with no strong directional persistence.
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current STABLE regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 31 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.