Recession Probability Analysis
The SIGMA Engine assigns Poland a systemic risk score of 47.1/100 (STABLE regime), with leading indicators suggesting moderate cyclical risk with base case avoiding technical recession.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.903, biological age 18 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=0.883, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=17.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-10-13: stable 30.4% / accumulation 25.6% / critical 24.8% / collapse 19.2%. The Hurst exponent of 0.595 shows neutral dynamics with no strong directional persistence.
Active risk signals driving the recession probability score:
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current STABLE regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 31 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.