Recession Probability Analysis
The SIGMA Engine assigns Turkey a systemic risk score of 83.0/100 (CRITICAL regime), with leading indicators suggesting elevated recession probability over the next 12 months based on credit tightening, PMI divergence, and growth deceleration signals.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.923, biological age 49 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=1.734, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=48.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-10-13: stable 22.0% / accumulation 23.7% / critical 29.6% / collapse 24.7%. The Hurst exponent of 0.757 indicates strong trend persistence — risk trajectory statistically likely to deepen.
Active risk signals driving the recession probability score:
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current CRITICAL regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 10 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.