Early Warning Signal Dashboard
Turkey's Early Warning Signal (EWS) composite registers SIGMA 82.0/100 (CRITICAL regime). The EWS system integrates Critical Slowing Down (variance increase before tipping points), Hurst exponent trend persistence, Hawkes process self-excitation intensity, and Hidden Markov Model regime probabilities.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.973, biological age 40 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=1.758, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=48.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 17.2% / accumulation 25.2% / critical 29.8% / collapse 27.8%. The Hurst exponent of 0.770 indicates strong trend persistence — risk trajectory statistically likely to deepen.
Active risk signals driving the early warning signals score:
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current CRITICAL regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 10 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.