Early Warning Signal Dashboard
Greece's Early Warning Signal (EWS) composite registers SIGMA 63.9/100 (ACCUMULATION regime). The EWS system integrates Critical Slowing Down (variance increase before tipping points), Hurst exponent trend persistence, Hawkes process self-excitation intensity, and Hidden Markov Model regime probabilities.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.770, biological age 224 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=1.286, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=38.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 26.9% / accumulation 25.1% / critical 26.4% / collapse 21.6%. The Hurst exponent of 0.729 indicates strong trend persistence — risk trajectory statistically likely to deepen.
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current ACCUMULATION regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 27 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.