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Financial Risk Comparison
🇮🇹 Italy vs 🇵🇹 Portugal
SIGMA Engine Systemic Risk Analysis · 2026
🇮🇹
Italy
54.1
accumulation
Kairos 30.1d·EU
🇵🇹
Portugal
46.5
stable
Kairos 30.0d·EU
SIGMA Verdict
Portugal presents lower systemic risk at SIGMA 46.5 vs Italy at 54.1 — a 7.6-point spread. Italy's primary risk driver is Sovereign/Fiscal. The Kairos temporal window suggests Portugal has the more immediate risk horizon.
Risk Dimensions
🇮🇹 Italy
🇵🇹 Portugal
Sovereign/Fiscalsafer →
82
58
Banking Stresssafer →
65
52
Currency Risksafer →
38
32
Political Risksafer →
62
48
Contagion Risksafer →
72
58
🇮🇹 Italy
Biggest Risk
Sovereign/Fiscal
82/100
Strongest Shield
Currency Risk
38/100
🇵🇹 Portugal
Biggest Risk
Sovereign/Fiscal
58/100
Strongest Shield
Currency Risk
32/100
Frequently Asked
Is Italy safer than Portugal for institutional investors?
Based on SIGMA Engine v5.0 analysis, Portugal shows lower systemic risk at 46.5/100. However, risk profiles differ: Italy has strongest exposure in Sovereign/Fiscal while Portugal is most stressed in Sovereign/Fiscal.
What drives the SIGMA score difference between Italy and Portugal?
The 7.6-point SIGMA spread reflects divergent risk trajectories. Italy's elevated regime is driven by Sovereign/Fiscal pressure at 82/100.
Related Comparisons
Full Italy–Portugal analysis: entity-level SIGMA, contagion paths, Phantom scenarios.
Daily brief · Kairos window · Early warning signals
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