Glossary · SIGMA Intelligence

Early Warning System (EWS)

An automated signal detection layer that activates when leading indicators of financial stress cross critical thresholds — typically 45–120 days before mainstream recognition of a crisis.

Definition

The Noosphere Prime Early Warning System (EWS) monitors a basket of leading indicators that have historically preceded financial crises: yield curve inversions, interbank rate spikes, equity volatility clustering, currency option skew, sovereign CDS spread widening, and behavioral sentiment divergence. The EWS activates — displaying a red alert on all affected entity pages — when 3 or more independent signals simultaneously exceed their 95th-percentile historical values. The design philosophy is to detect stress when it is still in the "pre-crisis amplification" phase, before contagion begins. Historical backtesting shows EWS activation precedes formal crisis declarations by an average of 67 days.

In the SIGMA Engine

EWS status is displayed on every country, sector, and entity intelligence page. When EWS is ACTIVE, the page header turns red and the Kairos window is prominently displayed. Pro plan includes push notifications for any EWS activation in monitored entities, allowing institutional investors to position ahead of the crowd.

Frequently Asked

How accurate is the Early Warning System?

The EWS has been backtested against 12 major financial crises since 2000. True positive rate: 91% (correctly identified pre-crisis conditions). False positive rate: 8% (alarm without subsequent crisis within 90 days). The 8% false positive rate is considered acceptable given the cost asymmetry — missing a crisis is far more costly than a false alarm.

What triggers an EWS alert?

EWS activates when 3+ of these signals simultaneously exceed critical thresholds: SIGMA Score > 65, yield curve inversion depth > 80bps, VIX/VSTOXX > 30, CDS spread WoW change > 25bps, interbank spread > 50bps above historical mean, NLP sentiment divergence > 2σ.

Related Concepts

SIGMA Score Kairos Temporal Analysis Silence Scanner