Glossary · SIGMA Intelligence

SIGMA Score

A composite 0–100 systemic risk index produced by the Noosphere Prime SIGMA Engine v5.0, where higher values indicate greater probability of a financial crisis event.

Definition

The SIGMA Score is an asymptotic composite index ranging from 0 (no observable systemic risk) to 100 (imminent crisis). It integrates eight analytical layers — metabolic entropy, structural fragility, market psychology, network contagion topology, NLP signal divergence, predictive Hawkes processes, adaptive learning, and technical regime detection — into a single, deterministic risk number. Identical inputs always produce identical outputs; there is zero randomness in the computation. The score is updated daily and is calibrated against historical crisis events including 2008 (Lehman), 2010–2012 (Eurozone), 2015 (China equity), 2020 (COVID financial shock), and 2022 (energy shock).

Mathematical Basis

SIGMA_FINAL = Σ(wᵢ × layerᵢ) / Σwᵢ

where layers include:
  L1: Metabolic Entropy (weight 0.18)
  L2: Structural Fragility Index (weight 0.22)
  L3: Psychology/Sentiment (weight 0.12)
  L4: Network Contagion (weight 0.15)
  L5: NLP Divergence (weight 0.10)
  L6: Hawkes Prediction (weight 0.13)
  L7: Adaptive Learning (weight 0.05)
  L8: Technical Regime (weight 0.05)

In the SIGMA Engine

Every country, sector, and entity page on Noosphere Prime displays a live SIGMA Score. Scores above 65 trigger Early Warning Signal (EWS) alerts. Scores above 80 activate the Phantom Chain scenario generator. Institutional subscribers receive automated SIGMA spike notifications when any monitored entity's score changes by more than 5 points within 24 hours.

Frequently Asked

What does a SIGMA Score of 70 mean?

A SIGMA Score of 70 places the entity in the STRESS regime (65–79), indicating elevated systemic risk with multiple compounding vulnerabilities. Historical data shows that entities sustaining scores above 70 for 30+ days have a 34% probability of experiencing a credit event or market dislocation within 90 days.

How is the SIGMA Score different from credit ratings?

Credit ratings (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) are backward-looking assessments of debt repayment probability. The SIGMA Score is forward-looking, integrating behavioral, network, and entropy signals that typically precede rating changes by 45–120 days. It also captures systemic risk — the risk that one failure cascades to others — which traditional ratings do not measure.

How often is the SIGMA Score updated?

SIGMA Scores are recalculated daily for all monitored countries, sectors, and entities. Intraday updates are available for Pro subscribers via the API when major events trigger recalculation.

What are the SIGMA regimes?

ROBUST (0–34): Low systemic risk, stable financial environment. STABLE (35–49): Normal risk conditions, minor stress indicators. WARNING (50–64): Elevated stress, monitoring required. STRESS (65–79): Active stress regime, multiple risk factors compounding. CRISIS (80–100): Imminent risk of financial dislocation or crisis event.

Related Concepts

Kairos Temporal Analysis Fragility Index Early Warning System (EWS)Regime Analysis