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Financial Risk Comparison
🇮🇹 Italy vs 🇧🇬 Bulgaria
SIGMA Engine Systemic Risk Analysis · 2026
🇮🇹
Italy
67.4
accumulation
Kairos 24.2d·EU
🇧🇬
Bulgaria
56.7
accumulation
Kairos 29.4d·CEE
SIGMA Verdict
Bulgaria presents lower systemic risk at SIGMA 56.7 vs Italy at 67.4 — a 10.7-point spread. Italy's primary risk driver is Sovereign/Fiscal. The Kairos temporal window suggests Italy has the more immediate risk horizon.
Risk Dimensions
🇮🇹 Italy
🇧🇬 Bulgaria
Sovereign/Fiscalsafer →
82
52
Banking Stresssafer →
65
50
Currency Risksafer →
38
30
Political Risksafer →
62
55
Contagion Risksafer →
72
48
🇮🇹 Italy
Biggest Risk
Sovereign/Fiscal
82/100
Strongest Shield
Currency Risk
38/100
🇧🇬 Bulgaria
Biggest Risk
Political Risk
55/100
Strongest Shield
Currency Risk
30/100
Frequently Asked
Is Italy safer than Bulgaria for institutional investors?
Based on SIGMA Engine v5.0 analysis, Bulgaria shows lower systemic risk at 56.7/100. However, risk profiles differ: Italy has strongest exposure in Sovereign/Fiscal while Bulgaria is most stressed in Political Risk.
What drives the SIGMA score difference between Italy and Bulgaria?
The 10.7-point SIGMA spread reflects divergent risk trajectories. Italy's elevated regime is driven by Sovereign/Fiscal pressure at 82/100.
Related Comparisons
Full Italy–Bulgaria analysis: entity-level SIGMA, contagion paths, Phantom scenarios.
Daily brief · Kairos window · Early warning signals
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