Empirical Markov chain transition probabilities between risk regimes, calibrated from Hamilton (1989) and Reinhart & Rogoff (2009) and adjusted by current Noosphere Scores. Shows the probability of each entity transitioning between Stable → Accumulation → Critical → Collapse states.
Global Average Transition Matrix
| Current \ Next | Stable | Accumulation | Critical | Collapse |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stable | 74.3% | 21.2% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Accumulation | 19.3% | 49.7% | 24.1% | 6.9% |
| Critical | 4.1% | 20.3% | 46.7% | 28.9% |
| Collapse | 4.0% | 9.5% | 31.5% | 55.0% |
| Stationary | 27.0% | 25.9% | 26.0% | 21.2% |
Stationary row = long-run equilibrium distribution across all regimes.
3 Entities in Critical / Collapse Regime
Entity Regime Dynamics (sorted by 30-day collapse risk)
Methodology
Base Matrix
Calibrated from Hamilton (1989) Markov switching model, Reinhart & Rogoff (2009) cross-country crisis data, and IMF FSRs 2000–2025.
SIGMA Adjustment
Transition probabilities tilt toward adverse states proportionally to current Noosphere Score. Higher σ → higher probability of critical/collapse transition.
Stationary Distribution
Long-run equilibrium via power iteration (M^100). Represents the unconditional probability of each regime under sustained current conditions.