Sovereign Debt Sustainability Assessment
Poland's sovereign debt profile generates a SIGMA score of 45.9/100 in the STABLE regime — reflecting moderate fiscal pressures within manageable parameters.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.861, biological age 22 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=0.791, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=14.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 30.2% / accumulation 26.1% / critical 24.6% / collapse 19.2%. The Hurst exponent of 0.598 shows neutral dynamics with no strong directional persistence.
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current STABLE regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 31 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.