Sovereign Debt Sustainability Assessment
Hungary's sovereign debt profile generates a SIGMA score of 65.2/100 in the ACCUMULATION regime — reflecting moderate fiscal pressures within manageable parameters.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.484, biological age 100 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=1.411, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=38.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 25.5% / accumulation 25.2% / critical 27.2% / collapse 22.1%. The Hurst exponent of 0.737 indicates strong trend persistence — risk trajectory statistically likely to deepen.
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current ACCUMULATION regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 26 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.