Recession Probability Analysis
The SIGMA Engine assigns Czechia a systemic risk score of 45.4/100 (STABLE regime), with leading indicators suggesting moderate cyclical risk with base case avoiding technical recession.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=1.012, biological age 13 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=0.630, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=20.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 25.6% / accumulation 27.2% / critical 26.0% / collapse 21.2%. The Hurst exponent of 0.700 indicates strong trend persistence — risk trajectory statistically likely to deepen.
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current STABLE regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 31 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.