Institutional Investor Intelligence
For institutional investors, Bulgaria's SIGMA score of 55.0/100 (ACCUMULATION regime) generates specific positioning signals. The Kairos Window — the arbitrage period before market pricing converges to SIGMA fundamentals — quantifies the time available to act on the informational asymmetry identified by the SIGMA Engine.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.823, biological age 27 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=0.905, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=17.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-10-13: stable 30.8% / accumulation 20.1% / critical 27.4% / collapse 21.7%. The Hurst exponent of 0.585 shows neutral dynamics with no strong directional persistence.
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current ACCUMULATION regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 31 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.