Systemic Fragility Assessment
Bulgaria's systemic fragility analysis yields SIGMA 56.0/100 in the ACCUMULATION regime, with Minsky cycle indicators suggesting mid-cycle HEDGE-phase dynamics with predominantly income-based debt servicing capacity.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.871, biological age 21 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=0.918, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=23.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 24.8% / accumulation 24.2% / critical 27.7% / collapse 23.3%. The Hurst exponent of 0.623 indicates strong trend persistence — risk trajectory statistically likely to deepen.
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current ACCUMULATION regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 31 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.