sector
SIGMA v5.0 Systemic Risk Score
Phantom Consensus Score
DIVERGING
In accumulation regime with diverging narrative: institutional actors may be building defensive positions while maintain...
Kairos Temporal Window
31 days remaining
Arbitrage window: 134d
Contagion Coefficient Rβ
Sub-critical (contained)
Percolation: β Below threshold
Regime Transition Probabilities
Historical Context
Closest Analog: Taper Tantrum (2013-05)
At 48/100, current risk profile is consistent with Taper Tantrum (2013-05). System shows structural resilience. Monitor for regime accumulation signals.
Taper Tantrum Β· SIGMA-equiv 48
Tapering began Dec 2013. EM recovered partially. India, Turkey, Brazil hardest hit....
Current Baseline (2026) Β· SIGMA-equiv 51
Ongoing. Multiple simultaneous tail risks: debt ceiling, EU fiscal rules, China property....
Active Risk Signals
Full Intelligence Analysis
Deep-dive: all 8 SIGMA layers, contagion paths, timeline
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