Noosphere Prime · Retrospective Diagnostic

The Proof.

We reconstructed 8 historical sovereign crises with the parameters available in these fixtures and applied the current engine consistently inside that reconstruction. This is a retrospective diagnostic, not prospective accuracy evidence and not a no-hindsight backtest.

Prospective performance belongs in the dated prediction ledger, where a claim is recorded before its outcome.

Average reconstructed SIGMA

64.6/100

EWS active in reconstruction

0/8 crises

Maximum lead in fixtures

45 days

Reconstructed Noosphere Scores — Historical Crises

🇬🇷Greece 2011accumulation

Sovereign default & bailout

/ 100 · fixture at 30d

What happened

GDP −7%. €110B bailout. CDS hit 2,800bps. Haircut 53.5% on bonds.

Fixture construction note

Fixture combines low perceived stability, long system age, and crisis-language inputs; it does not reproduce a vintage-complete information set.

🇹🇷Turkey 2018accumulation

Lira currency crisis

/ 100 · fixture at 21d

What happened

Lira −45% in 3 months. Inflation hit 25%. Emergency rate hike to 24%.

Fixture construction note

Fixture stresses currency, inflation, current-account, and policy-language inputs using the current engine.

🇦🇷Argentina 2019accumulation

Capital controls & IMF failure

/ 100 · fixture at 14d

What happened

Peso −30% in one day post-election. Capital controls imposed. Eventual default.

Fixture construction note

Fixture stresses fiscal, currency, capital-control, and IMF-language inputs using the current engine.

🇱🇧Lebanon 2019accumulation

Banking system freeze

/ 100 · fixture at 30d

What happened

Banks froze deposits. Currency lost 95% of value. No IMF deal reached.

Fixture construction note

Fixture stresses banking, deposit, peg, fiscal, and default-language inputs using the current engine.

🇱🇰Sri Lanka 2022accumulation

Sovereign default

/ 100 · fixture at 28d

What happened

First default since independence. Forex reserves hit $50M. President fled.

Fixture construction note

Fixture stresses reserves, import shortages, default, and external-financing language using the current engine.

🇮🇹Italy 2011accumulation

BTP spread crisis

/ 100 · fixture at 45d

What happened

BTP-Bund spread hit 575bps. ECB forced to intervene with SMP. Political collapse.

Fixture construction note

Fixture stresses debt, sovereign spreads, banking, ECB, and contagion-language inputs using the current engine.

🇷🇺Russia 2022accumulation

Sanctions + de-SWIFT

/ 100 · fixture at 7d

What happened

Ruble −50% in days. $300B reserves frozen. Debt declared in default.

Fixture construction note

Fixture stresses sanctions, reserves, payments infrastructure, energy, and war-language inputs using the current engine.

🇷🇴Romania 2020accumulation

Fiscal downgrade risk

/ 100 · fixture at 45d

What happened

Fiscal deficit hit 9.8% of GDP. S&P placed on negative watch. RON hit record low.

Fixture construction note

Fixture stresses deficit, debt, currency, elections, and external-financing language using the current engine.

Indicative — Model versus static market proxy

Every bubble is one monitored entity. The market-implied values are hand-maintained indicative proxies, not a live CDS feed; the gap is a comparison for investigation, not proof of mispricing. Largest indicative gap in this fixture: 🇫🇷 France — 32 points.

X-axis = market-implied risk (CDS/yield proxies) · Y-axis = Noosphere Score · Top-left = unpriced danger

🇫🇷 France+32 unpriced 🇩🇪 Germany+30 unpriced 🇳🇱 Netherlands+28 unpriced 🇺🇸 United States+24 unpriced

Market-implied risk = approximate proxy from yield spreads / CDS data. Updated daily.

Current model score — largest gaps versus static proxies

🇹🇷

Turkey

SIGMA 82 · Market ~62

SIGMA 75 · Market ~52

SIGMA 71 · Market ~48

SIGMA 68 · Market ~45

SIGMA 67 · Market ~50

SIGMA 64 · Market ~42

+22 unpriced

accumulation

Methodology

Historical scores use hand-authored parameter approximations, not a complete point-in-time database. The current engine is applied consistently inside each fixture.

Market-implied risk is a static, approximate proxy; it is not asserted as a current observed spread.

Divergence is the model score minus that proxy. It is a research prompt, not a valuation or investment conclusion.

Public Prediction Ledger

Every eligible prospective signal. Timestamped and settled by contract.

Prospective calls, including refuted and unsettleable outcomes, remain on the public record.

View Full Ledger →Get Alerts