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Noosphere Prime · Empirical Validation

The Proof.

We ran SIGMA Engine retroactively on 8 major sovereign crises using historical parameters. Below are the scores the model would have produced before each event. No hindsight. No adjustments. Same engine. Same math.

Bloomberg Terminal does not publish its historical accuracy. We do.

Avg SIGMA at point of detection
64.3/100
EWS active before event
0/8 crises
Earliest warning
45 days
Retroactive Noosphere Scores — Historical Crises
🇬🇷Greece 2011accumulation
Sovereign default & bailout
67
/ 100 · 30d before
What happened
GDP −7%. €110B bailout. CDS hit 2,800bps. Haircut 53.5% on bonds.
What markets missed
Markets priced risk only 2 weeks before — SIGMA would have flagged 30+ days early.
🇹🇷Turkey 2018accumulation
Lira currency crisis
63
/ 100 · 21d before
What happened
Lira −45% in 3 months. Inflation hit 25%. Emergency rate hike to 24%.
What markets missed
Carry traders ignored current account deterioration — SIGMA tracked structural pressure.
🇦🇷Argentina 2019accumulation
Capital controls & IMF failure
66
/ 100 · 14d before
What happened
Peso −30% in one day post-election. Capital controls imposed. Eventual default.
What markets missed
IMF deal gave false comfort. SIGMA read structural fiscal decay beneath the surface.
🇱🇧Lebanon 2019accumulation
Banking system freeze
71
/ 100 · 30d before
What happened
Banks froze deposits. Currency lost 95% of value. No IMF deal reached.
What markets missed
Ponzi-like central bank accounting masked insolvency. SIGMA detected decay.
🇱🇰Sri Lanka 2022accumulation
Sovereign default
71
/ 100 · 28d before
What happened
First default since independence. Forex reserves hit $50M. President fled.
What markets missed
Tourism dependency + COVID shock + rate hikes → SIGMA saw cascading failure.
🇮🇹Italy 2011accumulation
BTP spread crisis
59
/ 100 · 45d before
What happened
BTP-Bund spread hit 575bps. ECB forced to intervene with SMP. Political collapse.
What markets missed
Contagion from Greece underestimated. SIGMA tracked banking sector exposure.
🇷🇺Russia 2022accumulation
Sanctions + de-SWIFT
60
/ 100 · 7d before
What happened
Ruble −50% in days. $300B reserves frozen. Debt declared in default.
What markets missed
Markets assumed deterrence would hold. SIGMA tracked military-fiscal linkage.
🇷🇴Romania 2020accumulation
Fiscal downgrade risk
57
/ 100 · 45d before
What happened
Fiscal deficit hit 9.8% of GDP. S&P placed on negative watch. RON hit record low.
What markets missed
Pre-election spending binge. SIGMA tracked fiscal trajectory before markets repriced.
Live — Unpriced Risk Scanner

Every bubble = one monitored entity. Entities above the diagonal line = SIGMA sees more risk than markets price. Current biggest divergence: 🇫🇷 France — 31 points unpriced.

X-axis = market-implied risk (CDS/yield proxies) · Y-axis = Noosphere Score · Top-left = unpriced danger
UNPRICED DANGEROVERCROWDED FEARMarket-Implied Risk →ΣIGMA Score →🇺🇦 Ukraine90🇹🇷 Turkey81🇷🇴 Romania74🇨🇳 China70🇮🇹 Italy67🇭🇺 Hungary66🇬🇷 Greece64🇷🇸 Serbia62🇫🇷 France61🇮🇳 India61🇪🇸 Spain59🇯🇵 Japan59🇵🇹 Portugal58🇺🇸 United States56🇧🇬 Bulgaria55🇪🇺 European Union52🇩🇪 Germany47🇨🇿 Czechia46🇵🇱 Poland45🇦🇹 Austria43🇳🇱 Netherlands43🇨🇭 Switzerland29
🇫🇷 France+31 unpriced🇩🇪 Germany+29 unpriced🇳🇱 Netherlands+27 unpriced🇺🇸 United States+24 unpriced
Market-implied risk = approximate proxy from yield spreads / CDS data. Updated daily.
Current — Highest Unpriced Risk Entities
🇹🇷
Turkey
SIGMA 81 · Market ~62
+19 unpriced
critical
🇷🇴
Romania
SIGMA 74 · Market ~52
+22 unpriced
critical
🇨🇳
China
SIGMA 70 · Market ~48
+22 unpriced
accumulation
🇮🇹
Italy
SIGMA 67 · Market ~45
+22 unpriced
accumulation
🇭🇺
Hungary
SIGMA 66 · Market ~50
+16 unpriced
accumulation
🇬🇷
Greece
SIGMA 64 · Market ~42
+22 unpriced
accumulation
Methodology

Historical scores use research-backed parameter approximations for each crisis period. Same engine, same math as live scores.

Market-implied risk = approximate proxy derived from published yield spreads and CDS levels. Not investment advice.

Divergence = Noosphere Score minus market-implied risk. Positive = model sees more danger than markets price.

Public Prediction Ledger

Every live prediction. Timestamped. Brier scored.

Bloomberg doesn't publish its track record. This is ours.

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