π΅π± Poland: Systemic Contagion Outlook 2026
SIGMA Engine deterministic risk assessment Β· Updated 2026-10-13 Β· Brier scored
Systemic Contagion
Poland's highest structural vulnerability is concentrated in Contagion Risk (55/100), pointing to elevated risk of spillover from correlated risk entities and cross-border financial system linkage amplification. The SIGMA Engine identifies this through 8 deterministic layers including Metabolic (system energy decay), Fragility (Minsky-Kindleberger dynamics), and Kairos (temporal convergence analysis).
Poland financial risk β zloty pressure, CHF mortgage legacy, fiscal expansion for defense, PKO BP.
SIGMA v5.0 uses 8 deterministic mathematical layers: Metabolic (energy decay), Fragility (Minsky dynamics), Psychology (crowd behavior), Network (contagion topology), NLP (semantic entropy), Prediction (Hurst exponent + EWS), Learning (Bayesian update), and Technical (momentum regime). Every output is identical given identical inputs β zero randomness. Every prediction is timestamped and Brier scored publicly.