Intelligence Divergence
SIGMA vs IMF Divergence Tracker
Where Noosphere SIGMA Engine disagrees with IMF/World Bank consensus forecasts. Rating agencies have conflicts of interest. We don't. This is what the math says — updated daily.
Updated: 2026-10-13 · Methodology · Track Record
10
SIGMA higher than IMF
More risk than consensus
0
SIGMA lower than IMF
Less risk than consensus
12
Broadly aligned
Math confirms consensus
SIGMA signals MORE risk than IMF consensus (10 countries)
🇺🇦
Ukraine
IMF WEO Apr 2026
IMF says
Wartime Resilience
+3.0% growth
vs
SIGMA says
90.4/100
COLLAPSE
Math signals higher risk than institutional consensus. Historical pattern: SIGMA leads IMF downgrades by 45-120 days.⚠ EWS ACTIVE
🇬🇷
Greece
IMF WEO Apr 2026
IMF says
Continued Recovery
+2.3% growth
vs
SIGMA says
64.1/100
ACCUMULATION
Math signals higher risk than institutional consensus. Historical pattern: SIGMA leads IMF downgrades by 45-120 days.
🇷🇸
Serbia
IMF WEO Apr 2026
IMF says
Strong Growth
+3.8% growth
vs
SIGMA says
61.9/100
ACCUMULATION
Math signals higher risk than institutional consensus. Historical pattern: SIGMA leads IMF downgrades by 45-120 days.
🇹🇷
Turkey
IMF WEO Apr 2026
IMF says
Moderate Reform Progress
+3.1% growth
vs
SIGMA says
81.8/100
CRITICAL
Math signals higher risk than institutional consensus. Historical pattern: SIGMA leads IMF downgrades by 45-120 days.
🇮🇳
India
IMF WEO Apr 2026
IMF says
Fastest Growing Major Economy
+6.5% growth
vs
SIGMA says
61.5/100
ACCUMULATION
Math signals higher risk than institutional consensus. Historical pattern: SIGMA leads IMF downgrades by 45-120 days.
🇪🇸
Spain
IMF WEO Apr 2026
IMF says
Strong Growth
+2.1% growth
vs
SIGMA says
59.2/100
ACCUMULATION
Math signals higher risk than institutional consensus. Historical pattern: SIGMA leads IMF downgrades by 45-120 days.
🇵🇹
Portugal
IMF WEO Apr 2026
IMF says
Strong Fiscal Position
+1.8% growth
vs
SIGMA says
57.8/100
ACCUMULATION
Math signals higher risk than institutional consensus. Historical pattern: SIGMA leads IMF downgrades by 45-120 days.
🇺🇸
United States
IMF WEO Apr 2026
IMF says
Soft Landing Achieved
+2.3% growth
vs
SIGMA says
56.3/100
ACCUMULATION
Math signals higher risk than institutional consensus. Historical pattern: SIGMA leads IMF downgrades by 45-120 days.
🇷🇴
Romania
IMF Art.IV 2025
IMF says
Fiscal Adjustment Needed
+2.8% growth
vs
SIGMA says
74.7/100
CRITICAL
Math signals higher risk than institutional consensus. Historical pattern: SIGMA leads IMF downgrades by 45-120 days.
🇨🇳
China
IMF WEO Apr 2026
IMF says
Moderate Slowdown
+4.6% growth
vs
SIGMA says
70.5/100
ACCUMULATION
Math signals higher risk than institutional consensus. Historical pattern: SIGMA leads IMF downgrades by 45-120 days.
Full Comparison Table — 2026-10-13
| Country | SIGMA Score | Regime | IMF Outlook | IMF Growth | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇦Ukraine | 90.4 | COLLAPSE | Wartime Resilience | +3.0% | SIGMA > IMF |
| 🇬🇷Greece | 64.1 | ACCUMULATION | Continued Recovery | +2.3% | SIGMA > IMF |
| 🇷🇸Serbia | 61.9 | ACCUMULATION | Strong Growth | +3.8% | SIGMA > IMF |
| 🇹🇷Turkey | 81.8 | CRITICAL | Moderate Reform Prog… | +3.1% | SIGMA > IMF |
| 🇮🇳India | 61.5 | ACCUMULATION | Fastest Growing Majo… | +6.5% | SIGMA > IMF |
| 🇪🇸Spain | 59.2 | ACCUMULATION | Strong Growth | +2.1% | SIGMA > IMF |
| 🇵🇹Portugal | 57.8 | ACCUMULATION | Strong Fiscal Positi… | +1.8% | SIGMA > IMF |
| 🇺🇸United States | 56.3 | ACCUMULATION | Soft Landing Achieve… | +2.3% | SIGMA > IMF |
| 🇷🇴Romania | 74.7 | CRITICAL | Fiscal Adjustment Ne… | +2.8% | SIGMA > IMF |
| 🇨🇳China | 70.5 | ACCUMULATION | Moderate Slowdown | +4.6% | SIGMA > IMF |
| 🇮🇹Italy | 67.7 | ACCUMULATION | Stable Growth | +0.7% | ALIGNED |
| 🇩🇪Germany | 47.7 | STABLE | Recovery Underway | +0.8% | ALIGNED |
| 🇨🇿Czechia | 46.7 | STABLE | Recovery On Track | +2.4% | ALIGNED |
| 🇭🇺Hungary | 66.6 | ACCUMULATION | Gradual Recovery | +2.2% | ALIGNED |
| 🇵🇱Poland | 45.3 | STABLE | Solid Growth | +3.5% | ALIGNED |
| 🇳🇱Netherlands | 43.6 | STABLE | Solid Fundamentals | +1.5% | ALIGNED |
| 🇫🇷France | 61.5 | ACCUMULATION | Moderate Consolidati… | +0.9% | ALIGNED |
| 🇯🇵Japan | 59.0 | ACCUMULATION | Gradual Normalizatio… | +0.9% | ALIGNED |
| 🇦🇹Austria | 43.7 | STABLE | Weak Recovery | +0.3% | ALIGNED |
| 🇧🇬Bulgaria | 55.4 | ACCUMULATION | Moderate Growth | +2.1% | ALIGNED |
| 🇪🇺European Union | 52.1 | ACCUMULATION | Modest Recovery | +1.2% | ALIGNED |
| 🇨🇭Switzerland | 28.9 | STABLE | Resilient Economy | +1.3% | ALIGNED |
SIGMA scores are computed from public data (FRED, GDELT, GLEIF, Stooq) via deterministic 8-layer mathematical model. IMF forecasts from World Economic Outlook and Article IV Consultations. Divergence does not imply IMF is wrong — it identifies where quantitative signals differ from institutional consensus. Not financial advice.