SIGMA × Markets
Where SIGMA Engine risk scores diverge from sovereign CDS spreads, yield spreads, and implied volatility. When fundamentals and market pricing disagree, asymmetric opportunities exist.
| Entity | SIGMA | Mkt Risk | Δ | CDS 5Y | Yld Sprd | Impl Vol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳China | 70 | 36 | +34 | 78bp | +95bp | 19.8% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇯🇵Japan | 59 | 28 | +31 | 45bp | -85bp | 14.5% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇩🇪Germany | 47 | 18 | +29 | 18bp | 0bp | 12.4% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇫🇷France | 61 | 35 | +26 | 58bp | +78bp | 13.8% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇺🇸United States | 56 | 30 | +26 | 52bp | 0bp | 15.8% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇮🇹Italy | 67 | 42 | +25 | 128bp | +185bp | 14.2% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇪🇺European Union | 52 | 28 | +24 | 28bp | 0bp | 13.1% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇷🇴Romania | 74 | 52 | +22 | 185bp | +380bp | 18.5% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇪🇸Spain | 59 | 38 | +21 | 72bp | +98bp | 15.1% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇬🇷Greece | 64 | 44 | +20 | 95bp | +148bp | 19.2% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇹🇷Turkey | 81 | 65 | +16 | 312bp | +485bp | 28.5% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇭🇺Hungary | 66 | 50 | +16 | 142bp | +285bp | 21.4% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇮🇳India | 61 | 48 | +13 | 145bp | +215bp | 20.1% | SIGMA > Market |
| 🇵🇱Poland | 45 | 40 | +5 | 92bp | +195bp | 16.3% | Aligned |
SIGMA > Market — Underpriced Risk
SIGMA Engine detects systemic risk that sovereign CDS and implied vol have not yet priced in. These entities may see spread widening and vol expansion as fundamentals deteriorate.
Market > SIGMA — Overpriced Fear
Markets are pricing more risk than SIGMA fundamentals support. These entities may be oversold — potential spread compression as fear fades without a fundamental trigger.
Data Sources & Methodology
Noosphere Scores are computed by SIGMA Engine v5.0 from fundamental risk vectors: sovereign/fiscal stress, banking sector health, currency risk, political risk, and contagion exposure.
Market-implied risk scores are our proprietary calibration of sovereign 5-year CDS spreads, 10-year yield spreads vs benchmark (Germany for EU entities, US Treasuries for EM), and currency/equity implied volatility. The market risk index (0–100) normalizes these across the universe using our cross-sectional z-score framework.
CDS/yield data sourced from Bloomberg, ICE Data Services, and ECB/BIS publications as of Q2 2026. Implied vol from CBOE, Eurex, and regional exchange data. These are representative calibrations for research purposes, not live trading data.
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