Energy Sector & Transition Risk
Ukraine's energy sector stress analysis produces SIGMA 90.2/100 (COLLAPSE). Energy dependency creates financial systemic risk through import bill inflation, current account deterioration, utility sector credit stress, and industrial competitiveness erosion.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.458, biological age 84 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=1.321, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=38.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-10-13: stable 20.9% / accumulation 24.1% / critical 29.5% / collapse 25.5%. The Hurst exponent of 0.796 indicates strong trend persistence — risk trajectory statistically likely to deepen.
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current COLLAPSE regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 5 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.