Credit Cycle Position
Japan's credit cycle analysis generates a SIGMA score of 59.6/100 (ACCUMULATION regime). The credit cycle position determines whether Japan is in the expansion phase (rising leverage, loosening standards), the mature phase (peak credit), or the contraction phase (deleveraging, defaults rising).
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.738, biological age 876 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=0.757, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=20.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 27.2% / accumulation 25.4% / critical 26.5% / collapse 20.9%. The Hurst exponent of 0.686 indicates strong trend persistence — risk trajectory statistically likely to deepen.
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current ACCUMULATION regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 31 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.