Financial Contagion Network Analysis
Italy's position in the global financial network produces a SIGMA score of 68.2/100 (ACCUMULATION regime). The financial contagion R₀ coefficient quantifies whether risk originating in Italy would spread sub-epidemically (R₀<1.0), spread linearly (1.0-1.5), or propagate exponentially through interconnected financial systems (R₀>1.5).
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=1.269, biological age 47 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=1.622, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=40.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 6.7% / accumulation 23.7% / critical 30.4% / collapse 39.2%. The Hurst exponent of 0.692 indicates strong trend persistence — risk trajectory statistically likely to deepen.
Active risk signals driving the contagion exposure score:
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current ACCUMULATION regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 24 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.