Systemic Fragility Assessment
India's systemic fragility analysis yields SIGMA 60.8/100 in the ACCUMULATION regime, with Minsky cycle indicators suggesting mid-cycle HEDGE-phase dynamics with predominantly income-based debt servicing capacity.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=1.026, biological age 88 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=0.728, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=20.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 19.8% / accumulation 26.8% / critical 27.7% / collapse 25.6%. The Hurst exponent of 0.718 indicates strong trend persistence — risk trajectory statistically likely to deepen.
Active risk signals driving the systemic fragility score:
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current ACCUMULATION regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 29 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.