Systemic Fragility Assessment
France's systemic fragility analysis yields SIGMA 61.2/100 in the ACCUMULATION regime, with Minsky cycle indicators suggesting mid-cycle HEDGE-phase dynamics with predominantly income-based debt servicing capacity.
The SIGMA Engine v5.0 derives this score from eight deterministic analytical layers: metabolic lifecycle entropy (β=0.964, biological age 153 months), structural fragility (Minsky phase: hedge), NLP narrative divergence (0.0%), network contagion (R₀=1.398, percolation intact), and predictive signals (CSD=30.0, Hawkes λ=0.1000).
Regime probability distribution as of 2026-06-10: stable 27.8% / accumulation 24.6% / critical 26.3% / collapse 21.3%. The Hurst exponent of 0.702 indicates strong trend persistence — risk trajectory statistically likely to deepen.
Active risk signals driving the systemic fragility score:
Based on Markov chain transition probability from current ACCUMULATION regime. Kairos arbitrage window: 29 days.
Methodology: SIGMA scores are deterministic (identical inputs = identical outputs). Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT geopolitical entropy, GLEIF corporate ownership network, Stooq price data. Not financial advice — for informational and research purposes only. Verify predictions: /predictions.