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Financial Risk Comparison
🇺🇦 Ukraine vs 🇹🇷 Turkey
SIGMA Engine Systemic Risk Analysis · 2026
🇺🇦
Ukraine
92.2
collapse
Kairos 4.0d·CEE
EWS ACTIVE
🇹🇷
Turkey
83.9
critical
Kairos 7.6d·EM
SIGMA Verdict
Turkey presents lower systemic risk at SIGMA 83.9 vs Ukraine at 92.2 — a 8.3-point spread. Ukraine's primary risk driver is Sovereign/Fiscal. The Kairos temporal window suggests Ukraine has the more immediate risk horizon.
Risk Dimensions
🇺🇦 Ukraine
🇹🇷 Turkey
Sovereign/Fiscalsafer →
95
72
Banking Stresssafer →
78
68
Currency Risktied
88
88
Political Risksafer →
92
78
Contagion Risk← safer
45
65
🇺🇦 Ukraine
Biggest Risk
Sovereign/Fiscal
95/100
Strongest Shield
Contagion Risk
45/100
🇹🇷 Turkey
Biggest Risk
Currency Risk
88/100
Strongest Shield
Contagion Risk
65/100
Frequently Asked
Is Ukraine safer than Turkey for institutional investors?
Based on SIGMA Engine v5.0 analysis, Turkey shows lower systemic risk at 83.9/100. However, risk profiles differ: Ukraine has strongest exposure in Sovereign/Fiscal while Turkey is most stressed in Currency Risk.
What drives the SIGMA score difference between Ukraine and Turkey?
The 8.3-point SIGMA spread reflects divergent risk trajectories. Ukraine's elevated regime is driven by Sovereign/Fiscal pressure at 95/100.
Related Comparisons
Full Ukraine–Turkey analysis: entity-level SIGMA, contagion paths, Phantom scenarios.
Daily brief · Kairos window · Early warning signals
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