SIGMA ALERT — CRITICAL RISK LEVEL
Ukraine · Issued 2026-08-26 · SIGMA 90.1 / 100
2026-08-26 · SIGMA Alert
Ukraine financial risk — wartime sovereign debt sustainability, hryvnia pressure, IMF dependency.
SIGMA Score
90.1
Collapse
Phantom Score
46
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
5.8d remaining
Velocity
↑↑ Accelerating
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Lehman Collapse
2008-09 · SIGMA-equivalent: 88
Lehman Brothers files Chapter 11. Interbank credit freezes. Global liquidity crisis.
Current reading exceeds Lehman Collapse level by 2 points.
Historical Outcome
Global GDP contraction of 2.1%. S&P 500 fell 56% peak to trough. Fed QE1 launched.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
95
Banking Stress
78
Currency Risk
88
Political Risk
92
Contagion Risk
45
Active SIGMA Signals
Full real-time analysis with live data feeds, causal chains, and 90-day prediction ledger