SIGMA ALERT — HIGH RISK LEVEL
Ukraine · Issued 2026-06-13 · SIGMA 65.0 / 100
2026-06-13 · SIGMA Alert
Ukraine financial risk — wartime sovereign debt sustainability, hryvnia pressure, IMF dependency.
SIGMA Score
65.0
Accumulation
Phantom Score
46
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
26.5d remaining
Velocity
↑ Rising
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock
2022-03 · SIGMA-equivalent: 61
Russia invades Ukraine. Gas supply to Europe threatened. Wheat +40%, Energy +80%.
Current reading exceeds Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock level by 4 points.
Historical Outcome
EU energy rationing. German industrial production -6%. Inflation peaked at 10.6% in EU.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
95
Banking Stress
78
Currency Risk
88
Political Risk
92
Contagion Risk
45
Active SIGMA Signals
Full real-time analysis with live data feeds, causal chains, and 90-day prediction ledger