SIGMA ALERT — ELEVATED RISK LEVEL
Serbia · Issued 2026-10-09 · SIGMA 63.8 / 100
2026-10-09 · SIGMA Alert
Serbia financial intelligence — EU accession path, dinar stability, banking sector foreign ownership.
SIGMA Score
63.8
Critical
Phantom Score
27
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
26.4d remaining
Velocity
↑ Rising
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
UK Gilts Crisis / LDI Meltdown
2022-10 · SIGMA-equivalent: 63
Truss mini-budget. 30Y gilt yield +130bps in 3 days. BOE emergency intervention. Pension funds margin called.
Current reading exceeds UK Gilts Crisis / LDI Meltdown level by 1 points.
Historical Outcome
BOE bought £65B gilts. Truss resigned 45 days in office. Sunak reversed all Truss measures.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
62
Banking Stress
55
Currency Risk
58
Political Risk
65
Contagion Risk
48
Full real-time analysis with live data feeds, causal chains, and 90-day prediction ledger