SIGMA ALERT — ELEVATED RISK LEVEL
Serbia · Issued 2026-08-25 · SIGMA 61.6 / 100
2026-08-25 · SIGMA Alert
Serbia financial intelligence — EU accession path, dinar stability, banking sector foreign ownership.
SIGMA Score
61.6
Accumulation
Phantom Score
41
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
28.3d remaining
Velocity
↑ Rising
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock
2022-03 · SIGMA-equivalent: 61
Russia invades Ukraine. Gas supply to Europe threatened. Wheat +40%, Energy +80%.
Current reading exceeds Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock level by 1 points.
Historical Outcome
EU energy rationing. German industrial production -6%. Inflation peaked at 10.6% in EU.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
62
Banking Stress
55
Currency Risk
58
Political Risk
65
Contagion Risk
48
Full real-time analysis with live data feeds, causal chains, and 90-day prediction ledger