SIGMA ALERT — ELEVATED RISK LEVEL
Serbia · Issued 2026-06-15 · SIGMA 53.7 / 100
2026-06-15 · SIGMA Alert
Serbia financial intelligence — EU accession path, dinar stability, banking sector foreign ownership.
SIGMA Score
53.7
Accumulation
Phantom Score
41
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
30.4d remaining
Velocity
→ Building
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Yen Carry Unwind / JPY Flash Crash
2024-08 · SIGMA-equivalent: 55
BOJ surprise rate hike. JPY +8% vs USD in 3 days. Nikkei -12%. Global carry trade liquidation.
Current reading is 1 points below Yen Carry Unwind / JPY Flash Crash.
Historical Outcome
Markets recovered within 2 weeks. BOJ paused hikes. Carry trade partially rebuilt.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
62
Banking Stress
55
Currency Risk
58
Political Risk
65
Contagion Risk
48
Full real-time analysis with live data feeds, causal chains, and 90-day prediction ledger