SIGMA ALERT — ELEVATED RISK LEVEL
Serbia · Issued 2026-06-05 · SIGMA 51.7 / 100
2026-06-05 · SIGMA Alert
Serbia financial intelligence — EU accession path, dinar stability, banking sector foreign ownership.
SIGMA Score
51.7
Accumulation
Phantom Score
41
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
30.2d remaining
Velocity
→ Building
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Fed Pivot Panic / Q4 2018 Selloff
2018-12 · SIGMA-equivalent: 52
Fed hike + QT. S&P 500 -20%. High yield credit spread +250bps. Powell "autopilot" comment.
Current reading is 0 points below Fed Pivot Panic / Q4 2018 Selloff.
Historical Outcome
Fed pivoted Jan 2019. Rate cuts resumed July 2019. Equity recovery >20% in H1 2019.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
62
Banking Stress
55
Currency Risk
58
Political Risk
65
Contagion Risk
48
Full real-time analysis with live data feeds, causal chains, and 90-day prediction ledger