SIGMA ALERT — ELEVATED RISK LEVEL
Japan · Issued 2026-10-26 · SIGMA 64.5 / 100
2026-10-26 · SIGMA Alert
Japan financial risk — sovereign debt 260% GDP, BOJ yield curve control exit, yen carry trade unwind.
SIGMA Score
64.5
Accumulation
Phantom Score
38
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
26.5d remaining
Velocity
↑ Rising
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock
2022-03 · SIGMA-equivalent: 61
Russia invades Ukraine. Gas supply to Europe threatened. Wheat +40%, Energy +80%.
Current reading exceeds Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock level by 4 points.
Historical Outcome
EU energy rationing. German industrial production -6%. Inflation peaked at 10.6% in EU.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
85
Banking Stress
42
Currency Risk
35
Political Risk
28
Contagion Risk
68
Full real-time analysis with live data feeds, causal chains, and 90-day prediction ledger