SIGMA ALERT — ELEVATED RISK LEVEL
Japan · Issued 2026-06-16 · SIGMA 51.9 / 100
2026-06-16 · SIGMA Alert
Japan financial risk — sovereign debt 260% GDP, BOJ yield curve control exit, yen carry trade unwind.
SIGMA Score
51.9
Accumulation
Phantom Score
38
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
30.2d remaining
Velocity
→ Building
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Fed Pivot Panic / Q4 2018 Selloff
2018-12 · SIGMA-equivalent: 52
Fed hike + QT. S&P 500 -20%. High yield credit spread +250bps. Powell "autopilot" comment.
Current reading is 0 points below Fed Pivot Panic / Q4 2018 Selloff.
Historical Outcome
Fed pivoted Jan 2019. Rate cuts resumed July 2019. Equity recovery >20% in H1 2019.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
85
Banking Stress
42
Currency Risk
35
Political Risk
28
Contagion Risk
68
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