SIGMA ALERT — ELEVATED RISK LEVEL
Italy · Issued 2026-06-05 · SIGMA 54.1 / 100
2026-06-05 · SIGMA Alert
Italy financial risk — sovereign debt 143% GDP, BTP spread stress, Unicredit systemic exposure.
SIGMA Score
54.1
Accumulation
Phantom Score
42
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
30.5d remaining
Velocity
→ Building
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Yen Carry Unwind / JPY Flash Crash
2024-08 · SIGMA-equivalent: 55
BOJ surprise rate hike. JPY +8% vs USD in 3 days. Nikkei -12%. Global carry trade liquidation.
Current reading is 1 points below Yen Carry Unwind / JPY Flash Crash.
Historical Outcome
Markets recovered within 2 weeks. BOJ paused hikes. Carry trade partially rebuilt.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
82
Banking Stress
65
Currency Risk
38
Political Risk
62
Contagion Risk
72
Active SIGMA Signals
Full real-time analysis with live data feeds, causal chains, and 90-day prediction ledger