SIGMA ALERT — ELEVATED RISK LEVEL
India · Issued 2026-10-13 · SIGMA 63.9 / 100
2026-10-13 · SIGMA Alert
India financial risk — fiscal deficit, banking NPA, rupee vulnerability, growth-debt dynamic.
SIGMA Score
63.9
Accumulation
Phantom Score
40
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
26.4d remaining
Velocity
↑ Rising
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock
2022-03 · SIGMA-equivalent: 61
Russia invades Ukraine. Gas supply to Europe threatened. Wheat +40%, Energy +80%.
Current reading exceeds Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock level by 3 points.
Historical Outcome
EU energy rationing. German industrial production -6%. Inflation peaked at 10.6% in EU.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
60
Banking Stress
55
Currency Risk
62
Political Risk
55
Contagion Risk
60
Active SIGMA Signals
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