SIGMA ALERT — ELEVATED RISK LEVEL
France · Issued 2026-10-13 · SIGMA 63.1 / 100
2026-10-13 · SIGMA Alert
France financial risk — sovereign debt above 110% GDP, OAT spread, BNP Paribas systemic exposure.
SIGMA Score
63.1
Accumulation
Phantom Score
40
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
27.4d remaining
Velocity
↑ Rising
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock
2022-03 · SIGMA-equivalent: 61
Russia invades Ukraine. Gas supply to Europe threatened. Wheat +40%, Energy +80%.
Current reading exceeds Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock level by 2 points.
Historical Outcome
EU energy rationing. German industrial production -6%. Inflation peaked at 10.6% in EU.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
68
Banking Stress
52
Currency Risk
32
Political Risk
55
Contagion Risk
65
Active SIGMA Signals
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