SIGMA ALERT — ELEVATED RISK LEVEL
France · Issued 2026-06-16 · SIGMA 51.7 / 100
2026-06-16 · SIGMA Alert
France financial risk — sovereign debt above 110% GDP, OAT spread, BNP Paribas systemic exposure.
SIGMA Score
51.7
Accumulation
Phantom Score
38
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
30.2d remaining
Velocity
→ Building
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Fed Pivot Panic / Q4 2018 Selloff
2018-12 · SIGMA-equivalent: 52
Fed hike + QT. S&P 500 -20%. High yield credit spread +250bps. Powell "autopilot" comment.
Current reading is 0 points below Fed Pivot Panic / Q4 2018 Selloff.
Historical Outcome
Fed pivoted Jan 2019. Rate cuts resumed July 2019. Equity recovery >20% in H1 2019.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
68
Banking Stress
52
Currency Risk
32
Political Risk
55
Contagion Risk
65
Active SIGMA Signals
Full real-time analysis with live data feeds, causal chains, and 90-day prediction ledger