SIGMA ALERT — HIGH RISK LEVEL
China · Issued 2026-10-09 · SIGMA 73.4 / 100
2026-10-09 · SIGMA Alert
China financial risk — property sector Evergrande contagion, LGFV local government debt, shadow banking.
SIGMA Score
73.4
Critical
Phantom Score
42
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
18.6d remaining
Velocity
↑↑ Accelerating
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Bear Stearns Near-Collapse
2008-03 · SIGMA-equivalent: 72
Bear Stearns liquidity crisis. Fed emergency $30B facility. Sale to JPMorgan at $2/share.
Current reading exceeds Bear Stearns Near-Collapse level by 1 points.
Historical Outcome
Temporary stabilization. Lehman followed 6 months later. PCS at this point: 0.71 (PHANTOM).
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
58
Banking Stress
72
Currency Risk
48
Political Risk
65
Contagion Risk
78
Active SIGMA Signals
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