SIGMA ALERT — HIGH RISK LEVEL
China · Issued 2026-09-13 · SIGMA 71.5 / 100
2026-09-13 · SIGMA Alert
China financial risk — property sector Evergrande contagion, LGFV local government debt, shadow banking.
SIGMA Score
71.5
Accumulation
Phantom Score
43
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
20.6d remaining
Velocity
↑ Rising
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Bear Stearns Near-Collapse
2008-03 · SIGMA-equivalent: 72
Bear Stearns liquidity crisis. Fed emergency $30B facility. Sale to JPMorgan at $2/share.
Current reading is 1 points below Bear Stearns Near-Collapse.
Historical Outcome
Temporary stabilization. Lehman followed 6 months later. PCS at this point: 0.71 (PHANTOM).
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
58
Banking Stress
72
Currency Risk
48
Political Risk
65
Contagion Risk
78
Active SIGMA Signals
Full real-time analysis with live data feeds, causal chains, and 90-day prediction ledger